284
AXPZ20 KNHC 240926 RRA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 24 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N104W
MOVING WNW 10 KT. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED TO THE E AND SE
OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS
UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND OVER RATHER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THESE INGREDIENTS MAY ALLOW THE LOW TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A MEDIUM
PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 13N90W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 09N104W 1011 MB TO 10N115W. ITCZ BEGINS AT 09N119W TO
10N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W AND
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ FROM 130W TO
134W.
...DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ANALYZED
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FIRST RIDGE EXTENDS N-NW FROM AN
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 12N127W AND IS COVERING THE WATERS W OF
110W. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N120W 20N114W 11N116W. THE SECOND
RIDGE IS BROAD IN NATURE...AND COVERS THE AREA E OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE
SOME CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR AND OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...PARTICULARLY N OF 14N BETWEEN
93W AND 95W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TODAY REACHING THE
NW PART OF MEXICO AS ANOTHER AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N142W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SEWD TO NEAR 20N118W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WRN U.S. CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
STRONG NW-N WINDS JUST N OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE 0536 UTC
ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE...MAINLY NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED
N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W.
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE STILL SEEN USING NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE
IMAGES 11N136W. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE AREA AND GOES
FROM 12N35W TO BEYOND 9N140W. A MODEST REGION OF FRESH NE WINDS
AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE N OF THIS TROUGH AND ARE PRODUCING SEAS 8-
9 FT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE W AND EXIT THE AREA LATER TODAY.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A
BRIEF GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CALL FOR WINDS REACHING 25 KT
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE
TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO PROBABLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF 10N.
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AT 17-19 SECONDS DOMINATES
MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 115W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE
INVADING THE NW WATERS.
$$
GR
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