AKZ217-202000-
/X.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0074.000000T0000Z-130520T2000Z/
UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-
INCLUDING...AMBLER...SHUNGNAK...KOBUK
1106 PM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT MONDAY. 

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* FREEZING RAIN...BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 
ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. 

* TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON 
MONDAY. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY MAY BE GREATLY REDUCED. TRAVEL AND 
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT. BRIEF FREEZING RAIN MAY 
OCCUR AS WELL BUT NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT ONE OR MORE WINTER WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

&&

AKZ207-202000-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130520T2000Z/
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG
1106 PM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT
MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT MONDAY. 

* SNOW...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* FREEZING RAIN...BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH

* VISIBILITY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 
ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. 

* TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON
MONDAY. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AND SNOW WILL 
ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. TRAVEL 
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT. BRIEF FREEZING RAIN 
MAY OCCUR AS WELL BUT NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

AKZ017-020>022-025-026-201500-
/X.CON.PAJK.FR.Y.0001.130520T0900Z-130520T1500Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-GLACIER BAY-
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
1051 PM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT MONDAY...

RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE TO TAKE PLANTS INDOORS OR TAKE OTHER
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

FROST ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED DURING THE GROWING SEASON SO THAT
SENSITIVE PLANTS CAN BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE BEFORE DAMAGE
OCCURS.

PLANTS SUBJECT TO DAMAGE FROM FROST SHOULD BE GIVEN THE
APPROPRIATE PROTECTION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 AM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

AKZ220-220000-
/O.CON.PAFG.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130522T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS AK-
914 PM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR 
THE YUKON RIVER AT FORT YUKON...

AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY EVENING...THE RIVER WATCH TEAM REPORTS THE BREAKUP 
FRONT ON THE YUKON RIVER WAS IS APPROXIMATELY 20 MILES UPSTREAM FROM 
FORT YUKON. THE REMAINING ICE BETWEEN CIRCLE AND FORT YUKON APPEARS 
TO BE DETERIORATING AND THE BREAK UP FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY. THE 
SURGE OF WATER AND ICE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BREAKUP FRONT CAUSED 
MAJOR FLOODING IN CIRCLE TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FORT YUKON 
SOME TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. 

THE WATER WILL RISE SLOWLY INITIALLY AS THE ICE STARTS MOVING AT 
FORT YUKON...BUT WILL LIKELY RISE VERY QUICKLY AS THE SURGE OF WATER 
ARRIVES. THE ICE DOWNSTREAM OF FORT YUKON APPEARS TO BE STRONGER AND 
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ICE JAM MAY FORM.

LOW LYING AREAS IN FORT YUKON ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WATER IS EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY WITH 
LITTLE NOTICE. IF AN ICE JAM FORMS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT YUKON THE 
WATER COULD RISE EVEN HI
bb9
GHER AND FLOOD OTHER AREAS OF TOWN. 

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY TONIGHT. FORT YUKON 
RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING MUST TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. 

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. WATER
LEVELS CAN RISE RAPIDLY AND PEOPLE ALONG THE RIVER ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MOVE PROPERTY TO HIGHER GROUND AWAY FROM THE RIVER BANK.

LAT...LON 6656 14556 6660 14528 6646 14486 6641 14516

AKZ220-210000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FA.A.0002.130520T0200Z-130523T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
INCLUDING...FORT YUKON...VENETIE...CENTRAL...CIRCLE...
STEVENS VILLAGE...BEAVER...CHALKYITSIK...BIRCH CREEK...
CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS...EAGLE SUMMIT...TWELVEMILE SUMMIT
439 PM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE YUKON RIVER FROM BEAVER TO RAMPART...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* THE YUKON RIVER FROM BEAVER TO RAMPART

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

* THE BREAKUP FRONT ON THE UPPER YUKON RIVER WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
CIRCLE AND FORT YUKON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURGE OF WATER AND ICE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BREAKUP FRONT CAUSED MAJOR FLOODING IN
CIRCLE SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FORT YUKON SOME TIME
BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CONTINUING
DOWNRIVER TO BEAVER...STEVENS VILLAGE...AND RAMPART.

* THE RIVER WATCH TEAM HAS DETERMINED THAT THE ICE FROM FORT YUKON
TO STEVENS VILLAGE APPEARS TO BE DETERIORATING... ARCHED AND
LIFTING. THE SURGE OF WATER AND ICE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAKUP
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRAVEL DOWNRIVER STEADILY AND
BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT REDUCING THE AMOUNT THE RIVER WILL RISE.
HOWEVER ANY RESISTANCE TO THE ONCOMING BREAKUP FRONT COULD ALLOW
THE WATER TO AGAIN COLLECT BEHIND AN ICE JAM AND INCREASE THE
FLOOD RISK TO DOWNSTREAM COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

RESIDENTS LIVING DOWNSTREAM OF FORT YUKON SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS
AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS EARLY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. WATER LEVELS
CAN RISE VERY QUICKLY WHEN AN ICE JAM OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF A
COMMUNITY.

&&

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1045 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MUSKOGEE
OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 182. WATCH NUMBER 182 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1045 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 186...WW 187...

DISCUSSION...SW-NE LINE OF SVR STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS NOW
IN NE OK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON SW END OF LINE GIVEN COOL...CYCLONIC WLY
MID-LVL FLOW /500 MB TEMPS AOB MINUS 15 C/ ATOP 50-60 KT MOIST...SLY
LLJ SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...CORFIDI

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
AT TIPTONVILLE AFFECTING PEMISCOT AND LAKE 
COUNTIES 
AT MEMPHIS AFFECTING CRITTENDEN...DESOTO AND 
SHELBY COUNTIES 
AT HELENA AFFECTING LEE...PHILLIPS...COAHOMA AND
TUNICA COUNTIES 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED MONDAY.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

ARC077-107-MSC027-143-210149-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-130521T2232Z/
/HEEA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
849 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013



THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT HELENA
* UNTIL TUESDAY MAY 21.
* AT 8 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 42.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 44.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL.

ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071-LAZ001-002-010-011-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-201200-
/O.CON.KSHV.LW.Y.0025.130520T1500Z-130521T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-CADDO-
BOSSIER-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE LA-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MANSFIELD...
COUSHATTA...MANY...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...
MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...
GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...
HENDERSON...CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...
SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL
832 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT
MONDAY...

* EVENT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE             
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER     
SUNRISE WILL INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH        
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH AT TIMES. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BY MID MORNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

* IMPACT...STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE A ROUGH CHOP AND POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

ASZ001-002-201400-
TUTUILA-AUNUU-MANUA-
257 PM SST SUN MAY 19 2013



...HIGH SURF ADVISORY CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PAGO PAGO HAS CANCELED THE HIGH 
SURF ADVISORY.

SURF HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

UA FAAMUTAINA FAUTUAGA MO GALU MAUALULUGA
OFISA O LE TAU PAGO PAGO AS
257 AOAULI ASO SA ME 19 2013

...UA FAAMUTAINA FAUTUAGA MO GALU MAUALULUGA...

UA FAAMUTAINA FAUTUAGA MO GALU MAUALULUGA E LE OFISA O LE TAU. 

UA FAAITIITIA GALU MAUALULUGA I LALO IFO MA LE 8 FUTU.

CAZ053-054-088-201130-
/O.NEW.KLOX.WI.Y.0043.130520T1100Z-130520T1900Z/
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOCKWOOD VALLEY...MOUNT PINOS...ACTON...
MOUNT WILSON...SANDBERG...SANTA CLARITA...NEWHALL...VALENCIA
827 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON PDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM
TO NOON PDT MONDAY.

* WINDS AND TIMING...AREAS OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION AS GUSTY CROSS
WINDS MAY DEVELOP ON AREA ROADWAYS...SUCH AS INTERSTATE 5 AND
HIGHWAY 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE VALLEYS MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH OR
GREATER ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS MEANS
THAT WINDS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED.

&&

THE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND FREDERICK
COUNTY VIRGINIA ARE PROVIDED BY THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY.  THE AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THE DC
METRO IS PROVIDED BY THE METROPOLITAN WASHINGTON COUNCIL OF
GOVERNMENTS.  AIR QUALITY FORECASTS FOR MARYLAND ARE PROVIDED
BY THE MARYLAND DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT.

DCZ001-MDZ004-009-013-016>018-VAZ042-052>054-202000-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-MONTGOMERY-PRINCE GEORGES-
CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013



THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR THE DC METRO AREA IS CODE LEVEL
GREEN...WHICH IS GOOD...AND MEANS LITTLE OR NO HEALTH RISK.
PRIMARY POLLUTANT WILL BE PARTICLES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON GROUND-LEVEL OZONE AND FINE
PARTICLES...VISIT WWW.CLEANAIRPARTNERS.NET.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106-201200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FG.Y.0006.130520T0620Z-130520T1200Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON...
WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
220 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013



...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...THE REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL AFFECT TRAVEL IN THE
REGION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS THAT THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING, PROCEED AT A
REASONABLE SPEED AND BE SURE TO LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE BETWEEN
YOUR VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

.PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY...CAPABLE OF BRINGING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. SOILS OVER
THE WATCH AREA ARE SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS AND A RECORD WET
SPRING SEASON. ANY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TROUBLE SOAKING INTO THE
GROUND AND COULD CAUSE FLOODED BASEMENTS...SEWER BACKUPS...STREET
AND HIGHWAY FLOODING...AND RAPID RISES ON AREA
CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS.

IAZ008-MNZ079-086-087-094-095-200430-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130521T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MITCHELL-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-MOWER-FILLMORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...AUSTIN
317 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... 
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... 
MITCHELL. IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...DODGE...FILLMORE...MOWER... 
OLMSTED AND WABASHA. 

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING IS POSSIBLE.

* BASEMENT FLOODING...RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND ROAD
CLOSURES ARE ALL POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING...SHOULD IT OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
CRAWFORD COUN
58d
TY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

* AT 235 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE   
WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES OF 
RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. AN ADDITION ONE TO THREE 
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE 
WARNED AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

HIGHWAY 7 AT LITTLE CHERRY CREEK NORTH OF COLUMBUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 9509 3768 9463 3702 9461 3700 9462
3699 9501 3700 9508

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MINNESOTA... 

LONG PRAIRIE RIVER AT LONG PRAIRIE AFFECTING TODD COUNTY

.THIS RIVER FORECAST IS BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 
INCHES IN THE PAST 2 DAYS.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED 
TONIGHT...AND IN THE COMING DAYS.  IN GENERAL...ANOTHER 1.5 TO 3 INCHES 
OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISING
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS ARE 
DEPENDANT ON FORECAST RAINFALL A MOUNTS...WHICH CAN BE HIGHLY VARIABLE 
IN THUNDERSTORMS.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNT AND COVERAGE 
FORECASTS...A RIVER FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.  IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE RIVERS REACHING FLOOD STAGE...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION 
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

MNC019-210750-
/O.ROU.KMPX.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MAYM5.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
850 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013



FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER BELOW MAYER.
* AT  8:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.9 FEET. 
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 10.0 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MILL AVENUE IS CLOSED NORTH OF WATERTOWN 
FROM CARVER COUNTY ROAD 10 TO THE WRIGHT COUNTY LINE.  YANCY AVENUE
BETWEEN CARVER COUNTY ROAD 30 AND 78TH STREET IS CLOSED.  VEGA 
AVENUE BETWEEN CARVER COUNTY ROAD 33 AND 94TH STREET IS CLOSED.  
THE INTERSECTION OF UNION AVENUE AND 82ND STREET IS CLOSED. 

&&

LAT...LON 4498 9390 4498 9377 4483 9390 4486 9399

...RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY FROM NOON MDT TO 8 PM MDT FOR THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.ANOTHER MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WITH LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT SIGNIFICANT... CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST TO
THE TEXAS BORDER.

NMZ106>108-201400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0021.130520T1800Z-130521T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
1011 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT
MONDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT
MONDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WEST TO THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FAVORING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
MONDAY.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOSTLY 
BETWEEN 5 AND 12 PERCENT WITH THE LOWEST READINGS SOUTH AND 
EAST.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...

.A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LEE SIDE LOW FORMATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS
WELL. WINDS AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL WILL REACH 20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG EAST FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. MEANWHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS AREA-WIDE. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE IN A BELT STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN GILA REGION INTO SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY.

NMZ113-TXZ055-056-201300-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.A.0020.130520T1800Z-130521T0300Z/
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
133 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

* AREA AFFECTED: PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 113. FAR WEST TEXAS INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 055 AND 056.

* TIMING: MONDAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT.

* WIND: WEST 18 TO 21 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL WITH GUSTS TO
30...STRONGEST ALONG EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

* HUMIDITY: MINIMUM 5 TO 9 PERCENT IN THE LOWLANDS...9 TO 15 
PERCENT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
106
 
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

PZZ645-670-673-676-201130-
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL WESTWARD OUT TO 10 NM-
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PT. SAL TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND CA AND WESTWARD 60 NM
INCLUDING SAN MIGUEL AND SANTA ROSA ISLANDS-
OUTER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO
60 NM OFFSHORE INCLUDING SAN NICOLAS AND SANTA BARBARA ISLANDS-
851 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013



...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OFF OF
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

A GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WILL END EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT
700 NM NW OF EUREKA WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL POSSIBLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE WINDS COULD GENERATE LOCALLY STEEP SEAS AND
HEIGHTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 18 FEET.

WEST AND NORTHWEST EXPOSED FACING HARBORS...BAYS...AND INLETS MAY
BE AFFECTED BY STEEP AND SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST LOCALLY GENERATED
SWELL. THE SWELL WILL CREATE HAZARDS FOR BOATERS TRAVERSING THE
INNER WATERS OR PLANNING TO DOCK OR ANCHOR IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
A WEST AND NORTHWEST EXPOSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

BEFORE SETTING OFF AND WHILE UNDERWAY ALWAYS LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND FORECASTS.