Mount Gilead, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

708
FXUS62 KRAH 171946
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southeastern Virginia will move off the Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight. High pressure will extend over the area
through late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 132 PM Wednesday...
* Patchy fog development possible tonight
Surface analysis and satellite imagery reveal the slow-moving area
of low pressure is still rotating counterclockwise over southeastern
VA. A large area of stratus remains around the system, with the
western edge of the low clouds from Alamance to southern Wake to
southern Wayne Counties. As a result, a quite variable range in
temperatures are present, with low to mid 60s in the NE, to as warm
as the low 80s near Wadesboro. Highs should top out in the low 80s
in the W and SW to upper 60s in the far NE. Radar continues to show
some lingering light rain or drizzle across the northeast Piedmont
and northern Coastal Plain with the wrap around moisture. These
light rain or sprinkles can be expected off and on over the next few
hours in the NE before the low departs off the VA coast.
Tonight, the aforementioned low should exit of the Mid-Atlantic
coast, leading to gradual clearing of the low cloud deck. Lingering
low-level moisture and some patchy mist should then favor the
development of patchy fog, primarily for areas along and north of US-
64 of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Areas that saw rain as well
this morning over the northern Piedmont may be more susceptible to
fog development overnight to early Thu morning. Lows should drop
into the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 132 PM Wednesday...
* Warmer with 80s area-wide
Weak high pressure will be centered over the region in the wake of
the departing low, beneath broad troughing at mid-levels over
northern GA/SC. The airmass warms significantly from Wed, with
conditions typical for late June. Highs should return above normal
area-wide with low 80s NE to upper 80s SW. Clear skies and light
winds Thu night should favor lows in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...
Ridging aloft over the Eastern US will result in mostly sunny skies
and warm temperatures on Friday with highs in the mid-80s to 90.
This is 5-10 degrees above normal. However, dew points won`t be
oppressive and will mix out into the mid-50s to lower-60s in the
afternoon. While no POPs are currently in the forecast, latest model
guidance is trending toward the possibility of some isolated
convection due to the daytime heating and modest levels of moisture
and instability, so the forecast may change in future updates. Lows
Friday night will be in the upper-50s to mid-60s, which is also
above normal.
On Saturday, surface high pressure will move SE from southern Quebec
into northern New England. A cool air wedge associated with this
high will drop a backdoor cold front through central NC which stalls
to our south. The front may also be associated with isolated showers
(mainly north and west), but any convection would be limited by the
high pressure wedging and a lack of upper forcing. E/NE winds will
be a bit breezy on Saturday and especially Sunday. While Saturday
still looks warm with highs in the mid-to-upper-80s, it will turn
slightly cooler behind the front on Sunday with highs in the upper-
70s to mid-80s. Forecast lows this weekend are in the lower-to-mid-
60s.
The cool air wedging will gradually move to our west and erode early
next week as the surface high pressure system over New England moves
east into the Atlantic. This will result in a slow warming trend.
After Monday has similar highs to Sunday (upper-70s to mid-80s),
temperatures will increase to lower-80s to upper-80s by Wednesday.
Meanwhile a mid/upper trough moving into the Pacific NW on Sunday
will become a cutoff low that is nearly stationary somewhere over
the Plains from early to mid next week. While any small shower/storm
chances look confined to the SE near the stalled front on Sunday and
Monday, the cutoff low and increasing PW values may bring a better
chance areawide on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, most guidance at
this time keeps any significant precipitation to our west. The wet
deterministic 12z GFS is an outlier even compared to its own
ensembles, and the ECMWF is largely dry. Still, model differences
and this being days 7-8 mean there is time for things to change.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 132 PM Wednesday...
A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions will start the TAF period. An
area of low pressure over southeastern VA is continuing to promote
lingering MVFR ceilings at RWI and partially at RDU. This area of
low pressure will gradually shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast
tonight. This should favor MVFR ceilings gradually improving at RWI
by early this evening, though cannot rule out that these MVFR
ceilings linger longer than expected in the latest forecast.
Otherwise, VFR should largely take over until later tonight.
Lingering low-level moisture in the wake of the departing low
combined with winds becoming calm will favor areas of low stratus
and possible fog Thu morning. As of now, the best chance of fog
appears at RDU, GSO, and possibly RWI. Confidence was not high
enough to show prevailing fog at any terminal, however. Fog would be
more favored at RWI if the low ceilings can clear out. Conditions
should return to VFR at all terminals by mid-morning Thu, though may
linger a tad longer than currently expected at RWI. West to
northwest winds today will become light tonight and Thu.
Outlook: Largely VFR conditions are expected through Monday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Kren

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion