Connor Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

488
FXUS64 KHGX 141834
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
134 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Low daytime relative humidity values and dry vegetation will
  lead to enhanced fire weather concerns through tomorrow.
- Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the
  upper 80s to lower 90s persist through the weekend.
- A slight chance of isolated showers and storms is back in the
  picture Friday and Saturday before a weak cold front moves into
  the area on Sunday ushering in a return of drier weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Today is my first day back after a recovery weekend following
midnight shifts, and...the forecast doesn`t really look all that
different? Not that I`m complaining! If we`re going to get stuck
in a prolonged pattern, we could do worse than long stretches of
fair weather with above average daytime temperatures, punctuated
occasionally by weak cold fronts to filter in some drier air and
help make for some cooler nights. It`s still not all great,
though, as the drier air takes RH down to some low numbers (well,
by our standards anyway), and with a lack of rain to keep moisture
in vegetation up, well...there`s a fire weather section below.
It`s existence alone should signal that it`s a time to be cautious
with flame and sparks outdoors.
And ultimately, that becomes probably our major story of the
forecast period. With light, mostly offshore flow but still lots
of sun for daytime heating, we`re seeing not quite critically low
RH today and tomorrow, but it`ll be down there. Fortunately, with
high pressure dominating and the pressure gradient pretty slack,
we don`t have a lot of wind to push any fire starts around very
strongly.
Heat could be another secondary concern, as temperatures are
pretty persistently above average. The low humidity should help
here though, as shade and breezes should be helpful to mitigate
heat stress. Drier air will also allow for the heat to dissipate
at night and give folks relief then. And, we also have a
population acclimated to a long, hot summer as well. This is
probably a spot where the experimental HeatRisk tool actually does
capture the heat threat relatively well, as we`re mostly
concerned about unseasonable temperatures. It chimes in with low
to moderate risk. Not a widespread concern, but if you`re a person
normally sensitive to heat, or will be spending more time out in
the sun than you`re used to, it`ll be good to take it a bit easy
and not push yourself beyond your limits.
As we head deeper into the week, the threat for fire starts should
begin to wane some as persistent onshore flow begins for the late
week. This will boost humidity, which is maybe not as fun to
experience as the more crisp, dry air, but will keep RH values
higher and reduce the probability of new fires. As moisture
gradually builds, we may see some slight chances for showers and
storms return as early as Thursday afternoon`s seabreeze. Anything
that early would be very isolated and weak - Friday afternoon
should see a bit better chance. But, the best potential for rain
in the next week will come as a weak front makes its way into the
area this weekend. Like all the other fronts we`ve seen so far
this fall, it will not be terribly vigorous, so we`re not really
looking at widespread rainfall here, even in a wettest-case
scenario. We`re more looking at scattered showers and storms using
the front as a focus for initation along with the seabreeze.
Timing is still getting nailed down, but there`s enough confidence
that I`d peg Saturday through Sunday morning as the prime window.
After that front works through, some drier, though not much cooler
air will filter back into the area, ridging will build back over
the Gulf, and we begin the cycle anew.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions at all terminals with VFR expected to prevail
through the period. Winds today will be light out of the NE with
coastal terminals transitioning to an E/SE flow this afternoon
with the sea breeze.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The landbreeze/seabreeze cycle should generally prevail for
trough the middle of the week, but later into the week, a more
persistent onshore flow will come to dominate. Seas should be 3
feet or less for most of the week. Rain chances could return by
the end of the work week.
At the shore, conditions are similarly relatively quiet, though
not entirely so. Rip current risk is rather low, and looks to
remain so until the end of the week when onshore flow strengthens
ahead of an approaching front. The diurnal wind cycle is keeping
water levels above astronomical norms, but not excessively so for
now. For the next few days, high tide should be roughly in line
with the highest astronomical tides. There are some indications
that we may see another boost in water levels at high tide late in
the week. This makes sense given the more persistent onshore
flow expected, though there is still uncertainty in how much
higher the water levels will be depending on the strength and
direction of the fetch that sets up.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
With the dry conditions in place, we have another window through
Wednesday in which high fire danger is creeping into our portion
of Southeast Texas. The main concern here will be for an increased
number of fire starts. We`ll have low RH hitting minimums around
or below 30 percent today and tomorrow for inland areas. This will
directly impact fine fuel moistures, keeping them low, and prime a
"thirsty" atmosphere with a modestly high vapor pressure deficit
anomaly. With ERC values broadly in the 75-90th percentile
indicating drier than usual fuels, all it will take is a source of
ignition for a wildfire to begin.
The winds, on the other hand, appear to be a bit of a mitigating
factor. Winds less than 10 knots are anticipated through this dry
stretch. So, while we may be in an environment conducive to fire
starts, the lower winds should make them spread less quickly and
be more receptive to firefighting efforts. Still, it`s best not to
have the wildfire in the first place, so extra caution through
tomorrow with flame and equipment that can generate sparks is the
way to go. Later in the week, we should see improvement in the
situation as winds become more onshore, and more humid air works
back in from the Gulf.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  62  89  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  65  89  65  87 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  74  83  75  84 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion