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Devonshire New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

185
FXUS61 KPHI 140755
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 355 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS... The coastal low that has been bringing impacts to the region will continue to move eastward today. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday, with strong high pressure building in to close out the week. A low pressure system may approach from the west late this weekend into early next week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Early this morning, we stay breezy, especially for coastal areas. Wind gusts are 20-30 mph inland and 30-35 mph near the coast. There is still a decent amount of low-level moisture in place resulting in a continuation of areas of drizzle and light rain. Our coastal storm will continue to weaken and move away from the coast through today. This will take a lot of the precip with it.

During the day today, most of the precip is located closer to the coastal areas as the low continues to depart. Some guidance shows wrap around moisture continuing to lead to pockets of drizzle or light rain across parts of the area but the best potential for this looks to remain near the coast. What remains stubborn through today is the cloud cover. We continue to stay mostly cloudy during the day before seeing a decrease in the clouds into tonight from west to east. Our winds stay breezy with gusts around 20 mph inland and 25-30 mph near the coast. Highs today are in the 60s.

For tonight, some drier air moves in from the west which allows the cloud cover to decrease and the drying trend continues across the area. Winds are still elevated a bit into tonight with inland gusts 15-20 mph and coastal areas 20-30 mph. Lows overnight are in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Sunshine will mix with some clouds during the day Wednesday as a cold front drops southward across the area from Canada, promoting a gusty northwest wind by afternoon. However, no precipitation is expected. Despite the frontal passage, highs should be mild, generally in the mid 60s to lows 70s, except 50s in the Poconos.

Cold advection will persist thru Wednesday night as high pressure builds in from Canada, resulting in a steady northwesterly wind. Skies should be mostly clear, and lows will drop down into the upper 30s and low 40s.

With the high taking its time building into the area, we`ll keep a northwesterly gradient, so the northwest winds will remain steady and occasionally gusty on Thursday. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny, but temperatures will only recover to the upper 50s and lower 60s.

It still appears the gradient will remain tight enough Thursday night, with the high center still off to the northwest, such that we`ll mostly avoid a frost/freeze threat in locations where the growing season continues. The steady breeze will remain, though a bit weaker than Wednesday night. Lows Thursday night in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure finally builds overhead Friday, allowing winds to relax more as the cold advection finally dwindles. Another mostly sunny day should help to bring temps up a little, with highs in the low to mid 60s, except upper 50s in the Poconos.

The highs sinks to our south on Friday night, with warm advection beginning aloft as the gradient turns westerly, though remaining light. Some clouds may filter into the area as well. Lows Friday night in the 40s.

A weak warm frontal passage on Saturday should bring a bit more cloud cover, but also notably warmer temperatures. Highs Saturday in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Warm advection on a southwesterly gradient will continue Saturday night, but remaining dry with high pressure still in control as it drifts off the Carolina coast. Lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Warm advection peaks on Sunday just ahead of the next frontal system approaching from the west. Clouds will be increasing, along with the risk of showers, but it still should be the warmest day of the forecast period. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 70s, excpet 60s in the Poconos.

Aforementioned front moves through Sunday night, with widespread showers and maybe even some thunderstorms and locally heavy rain, depending on how the details set up. Lows Sunday night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

High pressure starts building back in Monday, with decreasing clouds and precip chances. Highs Monday in the 60s, except 50s in the Poconos.

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.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru 12Z this morning...MVFR/IFR conditions due to low CIGS. VSBY restrictions remain possible at times for BR/DZ. NNE winds around 10 kt at KRDG/KABE, and 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts at the other terminals. KACY may occasionally still gust to near 30 kt. Moderate confidence on low CIGS with low confidence of VSBY restrictions.

Today...IFR ceilings early, improving to MVFR ceilings by mid- late morning. Gradual improvement to VFR possible after 18Z-20Z from west to east. NNE winds around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate-high confidence.

Tonight...Mainly VFR with CIGS lifting and scattering out. Sub- VFR conditions will be possible in residual low clouds for KACY/KMIV initially. Moderate-high confidence.

Outlook... Wednesday thru Saturday...VFR conditions should prevail.

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.MARINE... North-northeast winds continue today, but will begin to subside by the afternoon with winds mainly between 20-25 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas of around 8-12 feet continue today. Periods of light rain, mist and drizzle likely through today. Winds decrease tonight to 15-20 knots with gusts around 25 knots. SCAs will be needed for wind and persistent seas of 6-8 feet.

Outlook... Small Craft Advisory conditions look likely at times Wednesday thru Thursday night due to winds and/or waves, at least on the ocean waters. Delaware Bay will naturally have more sub-advisory periods.

Sub-SCA conditions should become more widespread Friday and continue thru Saturday.

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.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Conditions are slowly subsiding as the coastal storm moves away. Back bays remain near moderate flood stage across Ocean County, but elsewhere most areas are now notably below moderate. One final high tide cycle which may reach widespread minor is expected this afternoon, and have continued/expanded coastal flood advisories across our shore zones thru 8 PM this evening. Thereafter, winds turning northwest should allow water levels to subside.

No tidal flooding is expected for our eastern shore counties along Chesapeake Bay.

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.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ022>025. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ020- 026-027. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020-026-027. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ003- 004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430- 450. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ431-451>455.

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SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM NEAR TERM...Guzzo SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...Guzzo/RCM MARINE...Guzzo/RCM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion

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