Emilee Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

512
FXUS64 KLCH 121820
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
120 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A mild and very dry forecast is anticipated through most of the
  coming week. Expect warm, above average temperature days but
  with cool fall-feeling evenings.
- With low afternoon relative humidity, there will be an elevated
  risk for grass and marsh fires into the start of the work week.
  Moisture should start its return late Wednesday into Thursday.
- The next chance of rain will be Friday as a weak wave moves over
  the northwest Gulf. Chances are less than 20 percent, as it
  depends heavily on moisture return prior to Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
No sweeping changes to the forecast as high pressure, caught
between lows situated on west and east US coastlines, moves
overhead thru Tuesday. Dry air with lower dewpoints in the mid
50s to around 60F will hang around thru the short term. However,
with rising heights, expect daytime high temps to push into the
mid to upper 80s each day with little to no cloud cover.
11/Calhoun
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
To start the long term, deep trof is moving into the northern
Rocky Mountains, shunted north by northern moving southeast high
pressure ridge, which is also being nudged inland/north by an
upper wave moving into the southwest Gulf. High pressure will
still remain in control of the forecast Wednesday and Thursday. By
Friday, the upper Gulf wave should be absorbed by trof moving into
the northern Plains. As the wave moves right overtop the region, a
few weak showers, or at least increased cloud cover, should return
to the forecast.
The upper wave also moves the ridge away from the region, allowing
the Plains trof to amplify southward into the cenUS. This could
send a cold front down towards the southeast US in response. Now,
that`s getting way into the longterm period, so don`t get your
hopes up just yet. We will be closely monitoring for any break in
this above average heat still ongoing.
11/Calhoun
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Winds are becoming more variable as high pressure moves overhead.
Winds may be elevated/gusty at times due to mixing, but this
possibility is too low to include in a prevailing group.
Another round of patchy ground fog may be possible through morning
hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Wind and sea conditions continue to improve within a dry airmass
and as ridging moves right overtop the northwest Gulf Coast
region. Winds will vary each day with diurnal influences along the
coastline.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Expect dry conditions to prevail with variable, occasionally
breezy, winds as high pressure now moves right overhead. Temps
will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 each day through the
mid week as high pressure remains in control.
Weak onshore flow attempt its return early tomorrow, but with
rising heights causing aforementioned hot temps and dry airmass in
place, expect a prolonged period of low humidities each day.
Minimum RH values 25 to 35 percent can be expected through at
least Wednesday. Overnight maximum RH values from 75 to 95 percent
give indication that moisture will not rebound completely during
overnight periods.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  87  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  63  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  60  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion