Fiesta Key Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

531
FXUS62 KKEY 101527
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1127 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will support
 potential bouts of freshwater flooding through tonight.
-A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys.
 The combination of the current King Tide cycle and persistent
 bouts of rainfall will support additional flooding over roadways
 and low lying lots. Coastal flooding will likely continue into
 the weekend.
-A weak cold front is anticipated to move through the Keys over
 the weekend. This will usher in drier air by late Saturday, and
 also bring the first taste of Florida Fall to the Keys into
 early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
An extremely active late overnight and morning for the Florida
Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore marine zones. Slow-
moving, training showers and thunderstorms set up over portions of
the Lower and Middle Keys, with widespread rain gauge and MRMS-
derived totals of 2-4", with isolated amounts up to 6" in these
areas. KBYX and KMTH radar reflectivity trends have been downward
over the past couple of hours along the Island Chain allowing
Flood Advisories to expire, with the strongest activity now
displaced in the distant Straits of Florida and to the northwest
in the offshore Gulf waters. Owed to the widespread rainfall,
temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s across the Island
communities.
For the balance of today, an upper-level trough impinging from the
east will interact with a stagnant inverted low- and mid-level
trough across the Keys. This will support continued large-scale
ascent, although convective potenital instability will likely be
stinted until recharging can occur later this evening and
overnight. The forecast calls for continued showers this
afternoon, with potential stronger thunderstorms redeveloping this
evening or overnight. No changes proposed to the inherited
forecast at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
From synopsis, a low- and mid-level trough located over western
Cuba will continue to slowly drift northward today and then north
northeastward tonight. This will support bouts of elevated rain
and thunder chances. The system will develop into an area of low
pressure off the coast of Florida, with southeasterly light to
gentle breezes gradually backing to the northwest to north over
the weekend. The low pressure system will continue organizing and
strengthening as it heads northeastward adjacent to the Mid-
Atlantic coast. As it does this, it will drive an early season
cold front towards the Keys, further shifting winds to the north
to northeast. Northerly swells will be possible in our western
marine zones today and through the weekend due to the influence of
the low pressure system.
&&
.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Widespread showers in the vicinity of the terminals supports a
prevailing SHRA period through 00z this evening at both EYW and
MTH island terminals. Any stronger thunderstorm will be handled
with possible short-term amendments, including TEMPO groups. A
lull in thunderstorm activity is expected for this period, before
a period of recharging overnight. Have elected to include a
general VCSH for that period due to uncertainty in timing and
evolution, with a PROB30 to account for enhanced thunder chances
through 12z Saturday morning. This will be reevaluated at the 18z
TAF issuance.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ076>078.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT/AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion