Flying H New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

847
FXUS64 KEPZ 112342
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
542 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
- Rain chances and moisture will increase across the region from
   west to east on today. Best chances for rain will be west of
   the Rio Grande Valley today.
- Remnant tropical moisture will continue to flow over the area
   Sunday and Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain
   will be a threat in southern and western areas of New Mexico
   with flooding possible.
- Temperatures will be near or above normal Saturday,then cooling
   below average Sunday through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
WV imagery showing moist southwest flow continuing over the CWA
this morning as upper high over the Big Bend area works with
Pacific trough just onshore of the Pac NW. Short wave rotating out
of trough over central Arizona is taking most of the remnants of
Priscilla north and west of our area. Slight lull in WV moisture
this morning, but moisture from remains of Raymond rapidly move up
this afternoon. Models showing PWs up to 1.1 inch north, to 1.4
inches south by tonight. Some light showers have developed over
the Gila/Black Range this morning, but expect stronger development
of showers/thunderstorms to begin next few hours. CAMS models
show storm development east to the Rio Grande Valley by late this
afternoon and over the eastern CWA tonight. Rain could become
heavy, especially with any thunderstorm. Storm motion today looks
to be around 20 mph or higher, which would help mitigate some of
the flood potential. Having said that, a Flood Watch continues
through Sunday afternoon for the western CWA.
Sunday and Monday...the wet story continues as PWs remain at
around 200% of normal as the last of Raymond`s moisture moves up.
Flood potential will continue, although lower, as rain rates
likely to be lower as rain becomes more tropical and stratiform.
Storm motion also looks to increase further.
Tuesday and Wednesday...begin a slow transition to drier more
typical Fall weather. Moisture not completely flushed out on
Tuesday so chance of showers will continue mainly east of the RG
Valley. Wednesday will see even smaller area for chance of
showers, limited mainly to Otero County.
Thursday through Saturday...Pacific trough finally passes through
the area, resulting in flushing the last of the moisture east of
the area. Some afternoon breezes likely each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Abundant moisture from a pair of Pacific tropical systems has
moved into the region. This moisture is helping fuel widespread
showers with embedded thunderstorms and lots of clouds. Ceilings
continue to be in the BKN070-150 range, but we will likely see
lower ceilings as we go into the night and through the day on
Sunday; BKN050-070. We could see some brief MVFR/IFR ceilings in
some of the heavier showers tonight, but the exact location and
timing of anything like that is still in doubt. We will likely see
off and on showers most of the night. The threat for
thunderstorms will diminish as we move into the overnight hours.
Rain showers will continue on Sunday with ceilings ranging from
BKN050-100, with occasional lower ceilings/visibilities in the
heavier showers. Looks like a wet and active next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Fire weather concerns remain at a minimal level with tropical
moisture in place. Rain, locally heavy, should continue into
Monday with some areas of flooding possible. Some showers could
persist on Tuesday but mainly just east of the Rio Grande Valley.
Drier air moves in Wednesday and beyond with seasonable
temperatures.
Min RH: Lowlands 60-75% Sunday and Monday, decreasing to 30-45%
Tuesday through Thursday. Mountains 70-90% Sunday and Monday,
decreasing to 45-70% through Wednesday, and 25-40% Thursday. Vent
rates poor-fair Sunday through Tuesday, becoming fair-good
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76  64  79  64 /  20  80  80  80
Sierra Blanca            74  59  78  58 /  10  60  80  80
Las Cruces               72  59  73  58 /  40  70  80  70
Alamogordo               75  58  75  59 /  10  70  60  60
Cloudcroft               55  43  55  44 /  10  60  50  60
Truth or Consequences    76  58  72  57 /  40  40  50  40
Silver City              69  54  65  53 /  80  70  60  60
Deming                   74  60  75  58 /  60  70  70  70
Lordsburg                72  59  70  57 /  80  70  60  60
West El Paso Metro       72  63  75  64 /  20  80  80  80
Dell City                77  60  78  59 /  10  60  70  70
Fort Hancock             78  65  83  64 /  10  70  90  80
Loma Linda               66  57  71  58 /  10  80  80  80
Fabens                   73  63  79  64 /  10  80  90  80
Santa Teresa             71  61  74  61 /  30  80  90  70
White Sands HQ           73  62  74  61 /  20  80  80  70
Jornada Range            73  59  72  59 /  30  70  70  60
Hatch                    77  60  75  59 /  50  50  70  60
Columbus                 73  61  75  60 /  60  80  80  70
Orogrande                71  58  72  59 /  20  80  70  70
Mayhill                  68  49  65  50 /  10  50  60  50
Mescalero                68  47  67  49 /  10  50  50  50
Timberon                 62  47  63  48 /  10  70  70  60
Winston                  71  49  67  49 /  60  40  40  40
Hillsboro                76  55  71  54 /  60  50  50  50
Spaceport                75  57  72  56 /  40  50  60  50
Lake Roberts             71  50  66  50 /  80  60  50  60
Hurley                   71  55  67  54 /  80  70  60  60
Cliff                    75  58  72  56 /  80  70  50  60
Mule Creek               73  54  67  53 /  80  70  50  60
Faywood                  70  56  66  56 /  70  60  60  60
Animas                   71  60  71  57 /  80  80  80  70
Hachita                  70  58  70  56 /  70  90  90  80
Antelope Wells           70  59  72  56 /  60  90  80  80
Cloverdale               64  57  66  55 /  70  90  90  80
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southern
     Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion