Lutheran Lake Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

426
FXUS63 KIND 130137
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
937 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather through Friday with warmer than normal temperatures
  continuing
- Rain and storms possible next weekend with gusty winds and cooler
  temperatures
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Forecast is in good shape this evening. Clear skies and light
winds have allowed temperatures to drop very quickly, especially in
favored cold spots.
High pressure and upper ridging will keep quiet conditions across
the area overnight. Some high clouds will work their way across the
ridge into the area, but these should thin some as they cross the
ridge axis. Still expect skies to be mostly clear to clear.
Some moisture will work in from the east and could help produce
patchy ground fog overnight, mainly east. Current forecast has this
handled well so made no changes.
Tweaked down low temperatures some in the north, especially in
favored cold spots. Otherwise, just adjusted hourly
forecast temperatures to match observational trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Monday)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Beautiful afternoon as skies were sunny with light easterly winds.
18Z temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Ridging aloft and at the surface remain the dominant features across
the region...largely remaining in place as a strong low pressure
system becomes nearly stationary off the North Carolina/Virginia
coast. Few cu trying to form over far eastern portions of the
forecast area but the broad subsidence over the Ohio Valley was
largely limiting development. Any cu will dissipate prior to sunset
and set the stage for clear skies for most of the night before
slightly deeper moisture aloft advects into the region with
scattered mid and high clouds predawn into Monday.
Patchy shallow ground fog will again be a possibility late tonight
and Monday morning focused mainly over the eastern half of the
forecast area. The advection of subtly higher dewpoints from the
northeast overnight may aid in more favorable conditions for fog
development. Again though...coverage will remain patchy and largely
confined to the river valleys and low lying areas at best due to the
presence of the subsidence and dry air across the region.
Temps...another cool night with ideal radiational cooling. Expect
lows predominantly in the mid and upper 40s. Upper level heights
will increase with the ridge expansion Monday supporting highs
mainly in the mid and upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Dry and quiet weather will continue through late week with broad
ridging aloft and at the surface. Skies will be mostly clear through
much of the period with the bulk of any increased cloud cover
largely confined to midweek as a weakening frontal boundary drifts
into the lower Great Lakes. It is not entirely out of the question
that the boundary will get close enough to generate a few light
showers over northern portions of the forecast area but the lack of
significant moisture pooling ahead of the front will likely mitigate
any rainfall.
Temperatures will remain above normal for mid October throughout the
extended. Have continued recent trends of nudging highs and lows to
the farther ends of the guidance envelope through Tuesday
considering the ongoing drought and dry ground conditions with highs
in the mid and upper 70s...possibly even rising into the lower 80s
across the lower Wabash Valley. Lows will generally remain in the
low to mid 50s through midweek.
Heights aloft will buckle slightly for the second half of the week
in response to a stronger upper low diving into New England. This
will bring a brief cooldown with easterly flow while forcing a
retrograde to the ridge back into the Mississippi Valley. Highs will
slip back into a range from the mid 60s to lower 70s east to west
Wednesday and Thursday but the cooldown will be especially noticed
at night with the potential for some localized frost across eastern
portions of the forecast area Wednesday night as temps fall into the
upper 30s.
The ridge will shift back east by Friday and Saturday with a noted
increase in southerly flow and warmer temperatures in response to a
developing surface wave over the Plains that will intensify as it
lifts northeast into the Great Lakes through the weekend. This
system is likely to bring the best chance for widespread rain and
storms over the next 7 to 10 days while also bring gusty gradient
winds and a more substantial but brief cooldown by the early part of
the week of October 20.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 642 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Impacts:
- Chance for some MVFR fog at KBMG
Discussion:
Some moisture will try and work west into the area overnight and
could allow some MVFR fog to form at KBMG. Confidence is low, so
only included 6SM for now. Cannot completely rule out brief fog at
KLAF/KHUF, but odds are too low to mention.
Otherwise, some passing high and perhaps mid clouds will move
through at times. A few pop up cumulus may develop on Monday as
well. Winds will be light and vary some, but they will generally
have an easterly component.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...50

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion