Maple Ridge, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

232
FXUS63 KFGF 211742
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1242 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer then average through the week with dry weather
  expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Showers developing in west central MN will continue to rotate
around the upper low currently centered over Mahnomen/Clearwater
counties, slowly drifting east through sunset. Will continue to
keep low POPs in our eastern counties into the evening. Some
clearing on the ND side could spread into the Red River Valley,
but could also see some fog formation later tonight so will
include some patchy mention for tomorrow morning.
UPDATE
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Fog has mostly burned off across most of the area, A few spots
are still showing low visibility but web cams show coverage is
pretty limited and will let the SPS drop. Adjusted cloud cover
for the eastern half of the CWA as they should continue to see
at least some clouds for much of the day.
UPDATE
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Patchy dense fog has been common across northeast North Dakota
this morning with the most persistent area low vis across
Cavalier and Towner. Have issued an SPS across the Devils Lake
region until 10am for this reason though fog (occasionally
dense) does exist outside the SPS area and motorist should
thus be cautious this morning. Remember to use your low beams
in areas of fog and to slow down.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...Synopsis...
A very perturbed flow pattern across the northern plains will
eventually give way to an omega block by the end of the week
with the current group of upper lows continuing their eastward
drift with a PNW trough diving south through the northern
rockies early in the week becoming the eastern feature in the
omega block as it dips into the southeast and deepens. During
this time plains riding dominates Wednesday and beyond leading
to increasing temperatures with highs in the 70s and lows in the
50s or about 10 degrees above average.
Southwest CONUS troughing then locks the ridge in place with a
polar jet across the Canadian prairies becoming increasingly
amplified and lifting as far north as the Arctic circle by the
end of next weekend meaning weak flow through the northern
plains with minimal impetus for shortwave activity once the
current activity clears the area today. In the meantime fog
ongoing in northeast North Dakota with clearing skies allowing
for efficient radiational cooling though the coverage is porous
enough that I still cant quite justify a dense dog advisory
despite pockets meeting criteria. Will likely opt for an SPS by
4/5am closer to when people are waking up if things haven`t
filled in yet. Looking east into north central Minnesota our
showers that just wont go away look to actually clear out this
afternoon.. fingers crossed. Not expecting much if any
additional accumulation but maybe a tenth before things
officially end today. Clouds clearing west to east late today
with clear skies for most tomorrow as highs reach the upper 70s
in the west and low to mid 70s in the east for a nice fall day.
As skies are expected to be mostly clear tomorrow with light
winds once again expecting fog potential with the primary focus
east of the Red River Valley. Finally as alluded to above with
ridging dominating this week minimal chances for impactful
weather the next several days with occasional fog likely the
main thing to watch for.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions at KDVL and KFAR, with stratocu hanging around at
KGFK and the MN airports. Although there is currently a hole
over the KTVF area expecting that to fill in. Lingering showers
and stratocu will continue into the afternoon for the east before
clearing out this evening for all sites. Fog formation is
possible, with models most consistent for KBJI so have vis going
down to 1SM for now. Could see some further west also but not as
confident. All sites should return to VFR by the end of the
period. Winds will remain light and mostly variable, with some
airports steadying out of the southeast.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR/TT
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion