Rural Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

658
FXUS63 KIND 151408
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1008 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather through Friday with warmer than normal temperatures
  continuing
- Active weather this weekend with showers and storms late Saturday
  into Sunday
- Turning cooler Sunday and Monday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Once again, minor changes to the forecast have been made this
morning concerning cloud cover and scattered sprinkles. Satellite
imagery and surface observations continue to indicated higher low-
level moisture maintaining across the region allowing for lower
ceilings and pockets of sprinkles north of I-70. Mostly areas should
only see a trace, but a few isolated areas may be able to measure
0.01" of rain.
Cloud cover trends also continue to be slower to advance eastward
this morning, and so we have increased cloud cover throughout today
and into tonight. This may also impact overnight, lows and will be
an area of concentration for future updates.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected through the period with
surface high pressure continuing to build in. Current IR satellite
imagery depicts extensive low-mid level clouds to the northwest of
central Indiana. These clouds are associated with an upper trough
that will push through the region during the period. Look for clouds
to increase through the morning before mixing out some late in the
day. This will limit diurnal heating, but highs in the 70s are still
expected for most locations. Some southwestern counties could
approach 80F due to less cloud cover.
There is a non-zero chance for sprinkles today with the
approaching upper wave. Residual low-level dry air evident in
forecast soundings will make it difficult, but cannot rule out
sprinkles if sufficient top-down saturation occurs. Some low-mid
level clouds are expected to linger over western portions of
central Indiana tonight. This would limit diurnal cooling slightly and
keep temperatures warmer compared to areas further east.
Temperatures are currently expected to range from the mid-upper
40s across the east to low 50s across western counties.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Thursday Through Friday.
A broad ridge of high pressure will remain in place over much of the
Central US Thursday with strong upper level lows to the west and to
the east. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the upper
Midwest as Gulf air advects over a nearly stationary front, but this
will keep to the northwest of the forecast area. The nose of the
upper level ridge will be overhead during the daytime hours on
Friday with  southerly surface flow gradually increasing ahead of the
arriving low pressure system this weekend.
Saturday Through Tuesday.
The main focus for the long term period will be tracking the
potential for both heavy rain and a few storms late Saturday into
Sunday as the aforementioned low pressure system tracks into Canada
and a secondary low ejects from the Four Corners region and
undergoes cyclogenesis as it tracks through Oklahoma into the
Tennessee Valley. The interaction between these two systems will be
the catalyst for the active weather trough the weekend. The LLJ will
ramp up ahead of the arrival of lift associated with the low
pressure systems on Saturday with a direct connection to Gulf air
bringing copious amounts of moisture to the area. Much of the timing
uncertainty has been resolved with models honing in on Saturday
night into early Sunday as being when the front will pass and when
the heaviest rain is likely.
Both isolated flooding and a few stronger storms will be possible
Saturday night into Sunday for Indiana with highest chances across
the southern and southwestern portions of the state. With the timing
looking more likely to be during the overnight hours vs afternoon
and evening, the instability will generally remain elevated which
lowers the concern for severe weather but increases the threat for
heavy rain as the forcing will be moving over when the LLJ is
maximized. There is still 15-25kts of shear in the lowest 1km, but
without better surface based instability, the severe risk should
remain southwest of the forecast area.
In addition to the very limited severe threat, isolated flooding
will be a concern across the lower Ohio Valley with an axis of 2-4
inches likely somewhere in the area. There is increasing confidence
in this axis being either along or south of the Ohio River, but
amounts of around an inch look likely for much of south central
Indiana with lesser amounts to the north.
Cooler weather is expected in the aftermath of the system late
Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure system looks to quickly
move through aloft Tuesday into Wednesday but models are struggling
on the broader synoptic pattern which keeps confidence low in the
weather through the remainder of the week.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Impacts:
- Patchy ground fog possible at outlying TAF sites through 12Z.
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Patchy ground
fog is possible at the outlying TAF sites through 12Z. Clouds are
moving into central Indiana with ceilings between 4000-10000ft. MVFR
ceilings are unlikely today, but cannot rule it out briefly
near LAF along with a stray sprinkle at any site.
Winds may remain light and variable through the morning though a
dominant northeasterly component is expected. Winds pick up a bit
during the afternoon, but should remain under 10kt and maintain a
northeasterly direction.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Melo

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion