South Gifford, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

286
FXUS63 KEAX 051130
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain showers and a few thunderstorms possible today. Best
  chances for rainfall are south of I-70.
- Well below normal temperatures today and tomorrow morning.
  Record low high temperatures today and record low
  temperatures Saturday morning are possible.
- Temperatures climb back into the mid and upper 80s for the
  later half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Water vapor imagery shows a deep, closed upper-low centered
over northern Ontario with cyclonic flow noted from Saskatchewan
to Quebec and southward from the Central Plains the Mid-
Atlantic. At the surface, a deep low pressure was centered over
the western Great Lakes. A cold front extends from this low to
southwest and has moved into northern MO. This front will
continue to track to the south through the overnight hours,
clearing the southern tier of counties in the forecast area by
sunrise. This front may provide just enough forcing that when
combined with broader-scale ascent associated with the right-
rear quadrant of the upper jet, rotating around the deep, closed
upper-low, that isolated to scattered showers are possible
through the morning and afternoon hours. The latest trends in
guidance suggest the little or no precipitation north of Highway
36, with increasing chances further south. The best chances
will be south of I-70 this afternoon and early this evening,
with most, if not all, precipitation moving south of the
forecast area after 7 this evening.
With the cold front moving through this morning leading to some cold
advection, increasing cloud cover, and precipitation chances,
temperatures will be chilly today. Normal highs for today are
in the lower 80s, 83 for Kansas city (MCI). Our current forecast
has a high of 67 for MCI, which is one degree above the record
low high of 66, set in 1905. The cool and dry airmass, along
with clearing skies, and light winds, will help temperatures
fall to well below normal values tomorrow morning as well. The
normal low for MCI tomorrow morning is 61, and our current
forecast has a low of 47. The record low for September 6th is
43, set in 1988. This record will be tougher to break but it too
is within striking distance. Ensemble guidance currently shows
about a 4% chance of seeing temperatures less than 43 at MCI
Saturday morning.
Temperatures trend warmer, though still below normal, for the first
half of next week, as an upper ridge builds eastward. That ridge
spreads into the Plains for the later half of the week, allowing
temperatures to climb back above normal. There are spotty
precipitation chances throughout the extended as well. The best
chances come Tuesday as a shortwave trough tracks across KS eastward
through MO. Modest moisture transport will occur ahead of the trough
and as the forcing associated with the shortwave moves into the area,
isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
An area of rain is moving through central KS early this morning,
with additional radar echos showing up across northern MO that
are likely not hitting the ground. As the morning progresses,
the area of rain in central KS will shift east and erode the
deep layer of dry air across eastern KS and western MO, allowing
for light rain to work to the surface. Overall, expected the
bulk of activity to be from IXD southward, so have just
mentioned a PROB30 group for the northern terminals. Also,
conditions should be VFR with only brief, minor visibility
restrictions anticipated in any heavier area of rain. This
evening and overnight, skies will clear out from north to south.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion