Sprouses Corner Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

587
FXUS61 KRNK 151115
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
715 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect dry weather into the first part of the weekend. Cooler
air behind a mid-week front may provide some mountain frost
Friday morning. Next opportunity for rain will accompany a
stronger front on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
1. Dry weather remains in place Wednesday
Clouds have steadily cleared overnight, with only a few
patches of stratocumulus evident in NC. The clear skies have
allowed valley fog to form in southeastern WV, and likely more
mountain valleys as we come closer to daybreak. A cold front
will pass through the area later today, bring with it no
precipitation, but instead cooler temperatures and some light
breezy conditions. Winds in the mountains and foothills may gust
up to 20 MPH this afternoon and evening. Highs in the mountains
will be in the mid 60s, and east of the Blue Ridge the highs
range from the low to mid 70s. Tonight`s lows will be in the 40s
for the entire area, though our colder mountain valley locations
could drop a few degrees into the 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Dry and quiet weather through the period.
2) Frost possible west of the Blue Ridge Friday morning.
3) Temperatures return to above normal Saturday.
A dry cold front will have pushed off just to our south on Thursday,
and a large surface high pressure system centered over the Great
Lakes will be the dominant synoptic feature over the Eastern CONUS
for the late week. There will also be upper-level ridging with very
dry air in place over the Mid-Atlantic, keeping convection
suppressed, with no rain chances across the entire area through the
end of the period. As the high settles in on Thursday, a northwest
wind will be slightly elevated, around 5-10 mph, with gusts of 15-20
mph possible, particularly in the mountains. The high shifts east
and then south into the western Atlantic by Saturday, though quiet
weather will continue.
Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be near normal for highs,
with 60s in the mountains and low 70s for the Piedmont. By Saturday,
as the high shifts offshore, southerly flow will allow for warm air
advection to allow highs to reach into the 70s area-wide. Some spots
could push 80 degrees in the Piedmont. Overnight lows will be the
biggest topic of the period, as cold air advects behind the dry
front Thursday night into Friday morning. Lows will be in the 30s
area-wide, with the highest elevations possible dipping below
freezing for the first time this year. Anywhere west of the Blue
Ridge could see frost. By Saturday morning, lows increase with the
southerly flow, with most areas in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) A cold front brings rain chances on Sunday.
2) Quiet weather returns next week.
3) Temperatures fall back to around normal behind the front for next
week.
The tranquil weather continues for Saturday night, though southerly
flow will keep temperatures above normal, and begin to advect in
more moisture to the area. A cold front with upper-level support
will swing down into the Midwest and move into the Ohio Valley,
approaching our area. This system will bring our next chance of rain
to the area, though models are inconsistent on exact timing and
coverage of rainfall. Once again, the front will weaken as it moves
into our area midday Sunday, likely limiting the rainfall potential.
West of the Blue Ridge will have the best chance to see rainfall,
with less coverage and lower PoPs for the Piedmont as the moisture
begins to fade. Most of the area should at least see some rainfall,
but this could change as we get closer to the event if moisture
trends downward. Southwesterly winds will increase as the front
moves into the area, with gusts of 20-25 mph possible. Rain chances
continue into Sunday night, before the front clears through by
Monday morning. Drier air and high pressure once again build into
the area through the end of the period with no other chances of rain
through early next week.
The cold front will knock our temperatures back down to right around
normal, with highs generally in the 60s to low 70s each day. Lows
will be mild Saturday night in the low 50s as the front moves
through, falling into the 40s for each night of the rest of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 715 AM EDT Wednesday...
VFR expected throughout this TAF period. Brief exceptions exist
in the mountain valleys where fog has grown overnight, and
rather dense in places. Some vsby has been measured 

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion