Avoyelles Parish Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

207
FXUS64 KLCH 131126
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
626 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A fire danger statement is in effect Monday from noon until 6
  PM Low afternoon relative humidity, along with drought conditons
  will cause elevated fire weather through Wednesday. Moisture
  should start its return late Wednesday into Thursday.
- The next chance of rain will be Friday as a weak wave moves over
  the northwest Gulf. Chances are less than 20 percent, as it
  depends heavily on moisture return prior to Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Only minor tweaks to the forecast as high pressure continues to
dominate our weather pattern. While the ridge aloft is centered
over Texas, 500 mb height at LCH is still around 585 dm. To put
this into context, a ridge this strong in October is expected
about once every 30 years. With a ridge this strong, rain chances
will remain zero through the first half of the workweek. Clear
skies and a dry profile will allow our daytime temperatures to
quickly rise with highs in the upper 80s. At night, light winds
and clear skies will allow for efficient cooling, dropping our
lows to the upper 50s inland and low 60s near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
For the long-term forecast, timing has been the biggest
difficulty as a trough digging into the Rockies will be the
catalyst to weaken the Ridge. As the wave moves north of our area,
the ridge will weaken with Ensemble tables showing a much weaker
ridge by Thursday. By the end of the week, the center of the high
pressure will be to our east, and our winds will become southerly,
and low-end rain chances (20%) will return to the forecast.
Near the end of the forecast, global models have been showing a
cold front moving across the region, bringing widespread rain and
cooler temperatures. The timing for this front is still up in the
air but Saturday/Sunday looks to be the most likely. With this
system still a week away, there is a lot of uncertainty, so
changes to the forecast should be expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Surface ridge will remain over the forecast area today. This will
allow for mainly dry conditions with clear skies and light winds.
There is a chance for some brief MVFR conditions around sunrise
from shallow patchy ground fog. Otherwise, VFR conditions through
the period.
Rua
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Through the middle of the week, winds will be below 10 knots and
mainly from the east. At night, winds will be calm. Waves will
stay below 3 feet. Rain chances will be below 10% with a slight
increase in rain chances near the end of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Drought conditions continue to be the main concern across the
region with KBDI values near or above 600. In addition, we now
have abnormally dry (D0) or moderate drought (D1) across much of
the region as well. No rain is expected until Friday at the
earliest. Minimum RH values between 25 and 35% in the afternoon.
Max RH values top out near 90%, showing that we are not having
complete RH recovery. The main limiting factor for fire danger
will be the light winds with 20-foot winds staying below 10 mph.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  86  62  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  86  60  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  87  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion