Barnegat, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

494
FXUS61 KPHI 240000
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will gradually track into the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night before stalling. The front may lift back north as a
warm front on Thursday night before another cold front passes
through late Friday and Friday night. Broad high pressure will then
approach from the west on Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any severe threat that may have been there has diminished. A few
thunderstorms remain possible into this evening, but the biggest
threat is for brief, locally heavy rainfall.
The showers and thunderstorms will diminish after midnight with
the loss of diurnal heating. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s
for most, upper 50s in the southern Poconos. Patchy fog may
develop, with the best chances being where it rained.
For Wednesday, the slow-moving cold front will dangle across
the northern CWA. As a result, we`ve painted the grids with a
chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms from about the PA
Turnpike/195 in NJ northward.
High temperatures on Wednesday will not be as warm as they were
today. but they will still be above normal quite a bit.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The period begins with the cold front sagging south across our
central and southern zones. From south to north across the CWA,
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will range from
about 40 to 80%. Overnight lows will dip into the 60s.
The best chances of precipitation this week looks to be on
Thursday and Thursday night (maybe Friday morning) as another
cold front works in from the west.
Afternoon temperatures on Thursday will be more seasonal thanks
to more widespread rainfall. Expected highs will climb into the
mid 70s to around 80 for much of the region, upper 60s across
the Southern Poconos. Dew points will remain elevated, making it
an overall muggy and rainy day. Thursday night`s lows will
mainly be in the 60s.
Precipitation totals Wednesday through early Friday morning
will be around 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts
possible.
The cold front will finish tracking through the area on Friday
before stalling south of the area through the weekend. With the
front remaining in close proximity through Saturday, this will
keep at least the mention of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms to continue through Friday night and into the
extended period.
Temperatures Friday and Friday night will be about normal for the
latter half of September.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As mentioned above, with the front just south of the region,
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms to continue into to
at least Saturday. Temperatures will be at or above normal
through the weekend.
What happens beyond this time for Sunday and into early next
week is yet to be seen and highly uncertain. Broad high pressure
will develop over the center of the country, gradually building
east with time. Eyes will also be on the tropics as most global
forecast guidance has been consistent on developing a tropical
cyclone somewhere over the western Atlantic early next week with
a cut-off upper level low over the Deep South. How all these
features interact with one another will ultimately determine
what kind of weather we encounter beyond Sunday. More to come on
this in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...Any lingering SHRA or TSRA will taper off by 04Z, and
should not get much farther east than the I-95 corridor
terminals. Sub-VFR conditions are possible for the second half
of the night with either low stratus or fog developing,
especially where any rain falls. On this flip side, clouds are
expected, and this tends to mitigate fog. So the forecast for
tonight is low confidence. Winds will go light and variable.
Wednesday...After some sub-VFR conditions in the morning (or at
least the potential of), VFR conditions are expected there
after. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions are
expected at times. Showers are likely with a chance of
thunderstorms, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Patchy
fog is also possible.
Friday through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely, especially early
Friday, before improving by the weekend. A chance of showers will
continue through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight...Low-end SCA conditions are expected for the NJ ocean
waters with seas around 5 feet. Otherwise, SW winds 10-15 kts
expected with gusts up to 20 knots, especially during the evening
hours. A few scattered showers (20-30% chance) possible, most likely
off the central New Jersey coast.
Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected attm,
although we`ll keep an eye on Thursday night ahead of the cold
front. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms possible each day.
Rip Currents...
For Wednesday...a HIGH risk of rip currents is in place at all
beaches as a long period 12 second onshore swell from distant
Hurricane Gabrielle remains. Breaking waves of 2 to 4 feet with
shore parallel winds around 10-15 MPH or so. Rip Current
Statement was extended through Wednesday evening.
For Thursday...elected for a HIGH risk at all Jersey Shore
locations and MODERATE for Delaware. The onshore swell decreases
to around 10 seconds, with lower breaking waves around 2 to 3
feet. Winds will be around 10-20 MPH, mainly offshore for DE and
either shore parallel or slightly onshore in NJ depending on
your location. This could change and become a MODERATE at all
shore points, but confidence was not quite there to drop the
HIGH yet for the Jersey Shore.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kruzdlo
NEAR TERM...AKL/Kruzdlo/MPS
SHORT TERM...Kruzdlo
LONG TERM...Kruzdlo/MJL
AVIATION...AKL/Kruzdlo/MJL/MPS
MARINE...AKL/Hoeflich/Kruzdlo/MJL

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion