Bellingham, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

136
FXUS63 KMPX 191202
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
702 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and weak storms on and off throughout the
  day, continuing into early Saturday.
- Further daily shower chances through midweek, followed by
  seasonal and dry weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Scattered to widespread showers are ongoing across a portion of
the MPX CWA, primarily across western Minnesota closer to the
upper level low that has been the primary driver behind the
weather pattern over the last few days. There have been a few
rumbles of thunder over the last 6 hours, but calling any of
what is ongoing an actual thunderstorm is a stretch with no
instability to speak of for now. As the upper level low
continues to churn overhead, we can expect continued scattered
showers and some weak thunderstorms throughout the day favoring
the area on the eastern edge of the center of the upper level
low, which continues to look like the western half of the State
with lower coverage of showers in the east. Forecast soundings
from the RAP/NAM show a sneaky setup for some cold air type
funnel clouds primarily during the afternoon and evening with
low level instability and vorticity, coupled with LCL heights at
or just below about 1kft. As with other cold air funnel setups,
these rarely reach the ground and even if they do typically
have rotational velocities below 50kts, akin more to a
thunderstorm wind gust than a tornado in terms of speeds.
Regardless, it will be worth keeping an eye on the radar and sky
if you plan on doing anything outdoors, especially during the
afternoon and evening.
Guidance continues to show a weakening of the upper level
circulation, resulting in the apex of the trough sliding
eastwards by Saturday morning which should also lower the
coverage of showers with weaker lift throughout the column
overnight. There will still be churning lobes of vorticity
within the now broader trough, with isolated to scattered
showers continuing for most of the day, this time favoring
western WI to northern MN based on the position of the best
forcing with both the GFS/CFS producing the greatest CVA over
western WI. The trough continues to churn over the area becoming
less and less focused from Sunday through Tuesday, with
northerly flow aloft returning by Wednesday spelling an end to
the isolated showers. Throughout the 4-5 days of potential
showers, we are not looking at significant PWAT values such that
flooding is expected with rain rates generally staying below
1/4 inch per hour. The synoptic scale guidance which covers the
entire period, including the ensembles, show a general 0.75-1.25
inches across much of the area through Wednesday, with the
highest amounts favored if we do see some isolated
thunderstorms.
Temperature wise, with cloud cover generally remaining prevalent
amidst the rain chances, we should not expect significant
diurnal swings with the airmass not changing much day to day.
Highs generally within the upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the
upper 50s are expected across the area. Due to the lack of
surface response from the upper level low, winds are also going
to be on the lighter side generally under 10mph throughout. This
week will feel like quintessential early autumn with cloudy and
showery weather alongside seasonal temperatures. This is a good
time to see some area-wide rainfall, as once we start to see
some colder low temperatures the preceding rain will help with
some vivid leaf viewing as we head into October and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A messy next 24 hours of flight conditions can be expected with
a large upper level low still rotating over the SD/MN border,
spreading a variety of MVFR/IFR ceilings and periods of SHRA
with occasional TSRA today into tonight. The bulk of the precip
at initialization is over western MN and western WI, but eastern
MN will fill in later this afternoon, thus all TAF sites will
see several timeframes of rainfall today. As for if/when TSRA
may occur, that has less confidence but have confined the best
timing to the afternoon with peak heating/instability (although
temperatures will not rise much from sunrise values).
Precipitation chances diminish this evening through overnight
tonight but then a combination of fog/low stratus is expected to
develop thus chances for IFR-or-worse conditions increase
tonight into sunrise Saturday. Winds will remain generally SE at
around 10kts.
KMSP...Dry to start, outside of possibly a few weak sprinkles
through late morning, but chances increase this afternoon for
more steady (if not intermittent) showers along with possibly a
few thunderstorms. Precipitation chances diminish going through
the overnight hours, but this will coincide with a drop in
ceilings, likely below 2 kft. Chances for showers increase again
late Saturday morning but will address that further in later TAF
issuances.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Chc MVFR/-TSRA, mainly P.M. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind variable 5 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion