Butler County, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

741
FXUS63 KICT 010346
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1046 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few isolated showers/thunderstorms possible late tonight into
  Wednesday morning, mainly along/west of Interstate 135.
- Extended period of above average temperatures and mostly dry
  weather persists the next several days.
- Increasing chances for off-and-on showers/thunderstorms by Saturday
  evening or Sunday evening, and persisting into next week, but
  uncertainty is high.
- Potential for a cool down by next week, although uncertainty
  is high.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
From late tonight through Wednesday morning, a pair of phasing
shortwaves approaching from the west amidst increasing mid-level
moisture and weak elevated buoyancy may support a few
showers/thunderstorms, mainly along/west of the Interstate 135
corridor. This is also supported by various convection-allowing
model solutions. Thinking activity will remain isolated to widely
scattered, and strong/severe storms are not expected.
As we head into the weekend and next week, model consensus supports
increasing western CONUS upper troughing, along with the potential
for a cold front approaching from the northwest. Increasing lift,
moisture, and instability should support increasing chances for off-
and-on showers/thunderstorms across the region as early as Saturday
evening or Sunday evening. Uncertainty remains high this far out in
the forecast, with a wide range of solutions amongst the global
model suite. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming
days.
TEMPERATURES:
Per model consensus, above average atmospheric heights/thickness
will support continued above average temperatures through at least
the weekend. Thereafter, the speed/placement of the approaching
strong cold front is in question, with a wide range of solutions
amongst the global model suite. The latest GFS keeps the front
mostly north of the forecast area, which would support continued
above average temperatures through much of next week. In contrast,
the ECMWF and Canadian solutions continue to progress the front
through the region, supporting near to below average temperatures
next week. Not sure which solution(s), if any, will win out. This
remains fairly far out in the forecast period, so we`ll continue to
monitor model trends in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly winds
will continue near 10 kt at GBD and RSL with speeds less than 10
kt at the remaining sites overnight. A few showers/storms are
possible towards sunrise across central KS. Confidence has
increased enough to introduce PROB30 groups at GBD and RSL.
Otherwise, wind gusts will increase by late morning to near
20-25 kt at GBD/RSL/SLN/HUT. Speeds will decrease to 10 kt or
less by 01Z Thursday.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRF

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion