Centre County Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

045
FXUS61 KCTP 111832
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
232 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Mostly cloudy with periods of rain this weekend into Columbus
  Day; turning breezy in southeast PA
* Trending drier with seasonal temperatures Tue-Thu next week
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest satellite imagery and surface obs indicate that a low
and mid level overcast has arrived in the Lower Susquehanna
Valley ahead of the gathering nor`easter, while a mostly sunny
day continues this afternoon across the remainder of central
PA.
As we remain in between an upper low moving south from the
Upper Great Lakes and the northward progress of a south
Atlantic coastal low, rain will be slow to arrive in earnest
until later this evening. Winds will become decidedly easterly,
but not strong/gusty. Temps will be 3-8F milder today (60s) vs
Fri with the greatest upswing over the Laurels Mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The rain squeezes into the central mtns early this evening. The
moisture from the ESE will meet up with the advancing upper low
and could develop some taller SHRA. Have left out mentions of T
at this point, since the melding doesn`t happen until
evening/early night when diurnal stability is increasing. Still
a strike or two is not out of the question. Precip is expected
to be heaviest in the central and NErn mtns. Those SHRA may drop
up to an inch of rain before they drift to the west a little.
FFG is super high and without deep convection, no flooding
worries exist. But, the rain doesn`t get all that far to the
west overnight, fizzling as it get into the far wrn mtns. The
morning on Sunday looks largely dry. A second wave of forcing
from the SE/coastal low swings into PA later Sunday. Lift and
moisture remain favorable for Sun night and Monday with several
rounds of RA/SHRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not noticing any changes in the long term after the rain ends on
Monday night or very early Tues as the coastal low slides east
and into the deep ocean. However, one minor blip in the dry
forecast for the rest of the week is a moisture-starved cold
front slated to arrive Tues night/Wed. NBM PoPs are 20-30 pct
across the N, but dry elsewhere. Without much moisture, we`ll
likely see this trend drier/lower PoPs over the next couple of
days. The cold air behind the front will not be as cold as what
we`ve seen the past couple of days.
Prev...
Breezy conditions and rain could last into early Tuesday
particularly over the eastern zones based on the latest model
guidance depicting a slower upper level pattern evolution.
Drying trend still expected Tuesday with mainly dry wx into the
second half of next week. Another push of seasonably colder air
appears poised to arrive by late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conds with an increasing serly breeze will predominate the
airspace into the late afteroon and evening hours.
Two storm systems will converge on the region overnight bringing
lowering cigs and eventually rain showers and associated
lowered visibilities. The first system is characterized by a
potent shortwave trough over the Great Lakes, with a narrow area
of rain showers ahead of a cold/occluded front. The second
system is an area of low pressure developing off the southeast
coast. As this system drifts north over the next couple days,
east to northeast flow will increase, resulting in increasing
low level humidity and a trend towards lower ceilings.
Much of today will be dry, with any scattered showers limited
to the far northwest and southeast portions of the airspace. By
20z Sat - 00z Sun, the upper level shortwave approaching from
the NW will begin to tap into increasing low level moisture
associated with the coastal storm, likely leading to an increase
in coverage of rain over central PA during the overnight hours
(00z-12z Sun). Along with the increase in rainfall coverage, we
expect to see deteriorating cigs and vsby with widespread
restrictions. By 06z Sun, the chance for IFR conditions
approaches 30-40% for most airfields except BFD and JST where
the chance is closer to 60%.
Low level wind shear from a strengthening east-southeasterly
low level jet will develop late Sat night across the Susq
Valley and points east.
Outlook...
Sun...Rain mainly for central and eastern airfields. Widespread
IFR Cigs and MVFR VSBYS with areas of LIFR possible. Some
improvement late possible in the NW. NE wind gusts of 20-30 kts
possible in the southeast.
Mon...Still breezy in NE flow with rain chances continuing
across the east.
Tue...A little less breezy as the wind switches to North and
skies begin to clear.
Wed...A chance for restrictions mainly early/north with cold
front, otherwise VFR.
Thu...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Gartner
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Gartner/Colbert

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion