Cherry Grove New York Weather Forecast Discussion

852
FXUS61 KOKX 101135
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
735 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore this morning but remains in
control through at least early Saturday. A coastal storm will
impact the area Sunday through early next week. The system
should slowly move out to sea by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Frost/freeze headlines remain in effect until 9 AM this
morning.
High pressure passes overhead this morning and then moves
offshore to our east. A mostly sunny, but cool fall day is
expected. High temperatures are expected to top out in the low
to mid 60s which is about 5 degrees below normal for early
October. With the high sliding the the east, a light return flow
will kick in and some scattered cu may move in from the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
High pressure generally remains in control at the surface
through at least early Saturday as it continues to gradually
shift offshore and weaken. Aloft, heights start to lower tonight
as an upper level low drops down from Canada to the Great
Lakes.
The main impacts from the expected coastal low will be after
this period, but as the pressure gradient tightens the easterly
flow will start to increase starting Saturday afternoon.
Additionally, with increasing moisture in the low levels, some
light rain or drizzle is possible as early as Saturday morning.
However, expecting much of this to hold off until later Saturday
due to a relatively dry subcloud layer seen in model soundings.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A coastal storm will impact the area Sunday through early next
week. Significant coastal impacts are possible Sunday into
Monday.
Key Messages:
*Damaging wind gusts to around 60 mph are possible across
 eastern portions of NYC and Long Island Sunday into Sunday
 night. A high wind watch remains in effect for these areas from
 noon Sunday through 6 am Monday.
*Strong winds possible elsewhere with potential gusts 35-45 mph,
 weakest inland.
*A long duration rainfall event is expected with forecast
 amounts 1.5to 3 inches, highest closer to the coast. This
 could lead to minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding.
*Coastal flood watches remain in effect for the entire coastline
 Sunday through Monday afternoon. See coastal flooding section
 below for more information.
Developing low pressure associated with a southern stream
shortwave will slowly track northward along the southeast coast
Saturday night and then along the Middle Atlantic coast on
Sunday. Large high pressure will remain over northern New
England and the Canadian Maritimes. A northern stream shortwave
will settle over the northeast by Sunday. These two systems will
interact with another, ultimately phasing into one trough
sometime late Sunday into Sunday night.
These interactions are difficult for the modeling to handle and
lead to some uncertainties with the track and intensity of the
surface low. An example of this can be seen with the 00z ECMWF
and ECMWF-AIFS, which show a faster northern stream that does
not phase into the southern stream until late Sunday night into
Monday. There even hints at this in the latest ensembles for
both modeling systems. This scenario would let the coastal low
to the south remain elongated and further away on Sunday before
getting captured with the phase and pushed back towards the
coast on Monday. This would delay the most significant impacts
till Sunday night and Monday. The overall model ensemble
consensus does not agree with this scenario, but it does
illustrate the complexity of the pattern and why uncertainty is
quite high despite this event occurring in 3-4 days.
Despite these continued uncertainties, there is enough
confidence for a strong gradient pattern to set up along our
coastal areas due to the presence of the large high to the north
and low pressure to the south. A 60-80 kt low level jet will be
associated with this gradient leading to potential of strong to
damaging wind gusts near the immediate coast. A general
consensus puts this strongest winds from Sunday afternoon
through Sunday night. There is always a question of how much of
the wind mixes down to the surface away from the immediate
shore. For these reasons as well as due to the strongest winds
occurring beyond 48 hours, have left the high wind watch place
with no changes. The phasing of the two shortwaves and occlusion
of the surface low should lead to the gradient winds starting
to weaken late Sunday night into Monday. However, it will remain
windy on Monday with gusts 25 to 40 mph and less potential of
damaging wind gust at the coast.
If the low tracks a bit further north then currently anticipated
Sunday/Sunday night, stronger winds could push further inland. If
the low ends up staying further south, the strongest winds could
remain offshore leading to slightly weaker winds along our immediate
coast.
Rain will develop south to north from Saturday night into
Sunday morning. The rain may become moderate Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night with potential of some locally heavy rain. Any
pockets of locally heavy rain should be brief and move quickly.
The rain continues Sunday night into Monday but likely ends up
much lighter through Monday with the system occluding. This will
be a long duration rainfall event and it has been dry recently,
so not anticipating anything more than minor nuisance flooding.
The system likely meanders south of Long Island Monday night
before beginning to push further offshore on Tuesday. Some
light rain could be thrown back over the southern half of the
area, but the overall trend is for drier conditions and weaker
winds Tuesday. High pressure starts building in from the Great
Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure moves slowly east into this afternoon.
Winds will become E/SE towards late this morning, and SE this
afternoon, with potential for some weak sea breeze enhancement.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday through Saturday night: Chance of rain with MVFR,
mainly Saturday night. NE winds G20-25kt late.
Sunday and Monday: Rain. MVFR cond expected, IFR cond possible
in bands of heavier rain, mainly at the coastal terminals. NE
winds 20- 30kt, G35-45kt at KISP, 15-25kt, G30-40kt at the NYC
metro/CT terminals, and G20-30kt at KSWF. LLWS possible with
about 50 kt at 2,000 feet for all terminals except KSWF.
Tuesday: Sub VFR to start with a chance of showers, possibly
improving to VFR during the afternoon. N to NNE winds sustained
at 10-15kt, G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected on all waters today through much of
Saturday.
Winds will start increasing Saturday night ahead of a developing
coastal storm. Gales remain possible on the ocean especially
overnight. A gale watch remains in effect. Winds increase further
Sunday into Sunday night with potential of storm force gusts. The
greatest potential for storm force gusts will be on the ocean, but
could come close on the non-ocean. A storm watch remains in effect
on all waters Sunday and Sunday night. Winds likely weaken a bit by
Monday morning, but gales remain possible. Seas with the storm may
reach 20 ft on the ocean and range from 6 to 8 ft on the sound.
Winds and seas subside further Monday night and Tuesday as the low
weakens and begins to track away from the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rain is expected Sunday into Monday. Average amounts of
1.5 to around 3 inches are possible. Minor nuisance/poor drainage
flooding is possible, but no significant impacts are expected with
this being a long duration rainfall and recent dry conditions.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Total water levels are expected to approach and possibly just
meet minor coastal flood benchmarks this morning`s high tide
cycle for the Nassau County south shore bays and S Fairfield.
Impacts should be minimal.
The potential remains for widespread moderate to locally major
coastal flooding and beach erosion Sunday and Monday, via the
combo of high astronomical tides and surge generated by strong
NE flow. Breaking waves around 8 to 12 ft possible based on 20+
ft seas offshore. A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for
the entire coast.
Current forecast has isolated locations in the south shore back
bays in Nassau and locations in the far western Great South Bay
exceeding major flood stage. While Stevens came in a bit higher
than ETSS and ESTOFS at these locations, there was enough
agreement of potential 3 to 4 foot surge to have the confidence
to forecast major. There is still a bit of uncertainty however,
especially in timing, as the guidance used for this forecast
leans more towards the GFS and Canadian surge timing of late
Sunday night into early Monday morning. The ECMWF brings in the
stronger winds closer to Monday and Monday night. This trend
will have to be monitored and can result in high tide cycles
beyond Monday being more of a concern.
There was decent disagreement across the CT coast, with Stevens
coming in much lower than the ETSS and ESTOFS. This could be a
result of small wind direction differences as a more northerly
wind would likely result in a lower flood threat. For now have
minor flooding across the CT coast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for CTZ009>012.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ010>012.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NJZ006-106-108.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ004-103.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ338.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night
     for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT

NWS okx Office Area Forecast Discussion