Fire Island, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

162
FXUS61 KOKX 291454
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1054 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes through the area tonight, followed by
a stronger cold frontal passage Tuesday morning. A large area
of high pressure will then build south out of eastern Canada
and into the area through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure remains in control. Bumped up high temps by a few
degrees mainly across southern zones that likely will be
unaffected by sea breezes by around 2pm this afternoon. This is
based on similar temps aloft to yesterday, however mixing won`t
be as deep and there will be cirrus filtering the sunshine this
time around, so overall high temps should fall short of those
from yesterday. Dewpoints will be lower today, so it will feel
less muggy than yesterday. Highs across the area mostly in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging east of the Mississippi River Valley and
troughing developing across eastern Canada will allow a cold
front to drop down across the area Tuesday morning this time
with a cooler airmass to follow. However, the drop in
temperatures will not be noticeable until we get into Tuesday
night as it lags a bit. Lows tonight will be similar to the
previous night with lows in the lower to 50s in the cooler
locations to the lower and mid 60s across the NYC metro. High
cloud cover looks to limit the extent of the cooling.
Highs for Tuesday will once again be in the upper 70s to around
80. High clouds will slowly decrease from north to south during
the day, becoming mostly clear Tuesday night. NE winds on
Tuesday will strengthen Tuesday night as the pressure gradient
strengthens between the building high to the north and the broad
area of low pressure off the Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts.
Gusts up to 20 mph will be possible after midnight. Cold advection
though will allow for lows to return to near normal, ranging
from the lower 40S well north of NYC to mid and upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry through the period.
The forecast period begins with a sharpening upper trough diving
through Atlantic Canada and New England, strong sfc high
pressure in the confluence zone to its rear across Ontario and
Quebec. This will bring cooler conditions into Thu, and the
pressure gradient between the high and the outer envelop of two
departing tropical cyclones well to the S/SE (Hurricane Humberto
and what is currently Tropical Storm Imelda) will generate
breezy conditions out of the NE Wed into Thu, with some gusts up
to 25 mph. High temps on Wed will be mostly 65-70, and remain
in the 60s for Thu. Some valley spots well inland could fall to
the upper 30s Wed night and Thu night. At Central Park, the fcst
high of 65 on Thu would be the coolest since June 15th, and the
fcst low of 51 Thu night the coolest since June 1st.
As the trough to the NE pulls away and heights rise aloft in its
wake as a large upper anticyclone builds E from the center of the
CONUS, a warming trend will ensue for late week into the weekend,
with highs on Fri once again 65-70 and into the 70s for the weekend.
For specific information regarding Hurricane Humberto and Tropical
Storm Imelda, see the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through Tuesday.
VFR.
A general light NE flow veers to the SE into this afternoon with
speeds remaining under 10 kt. Some coastal terminals go S by late
afternoon with sea breeze component. Winds light and variable
tonight, becoming NE after 12Z Tuesday as speeds increase to
10-15 kt by early afternoon. High cirrus persists through the
period.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts may be off by an hour or two this
afternoon, dependent on sea breeze development.
At LGA: Winds could remain NE off of the Sound for longer than
indicated.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR with gradually increasing NE flow.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NE gusts around 15-25 kt possible, with
the highest gusts at the coastal terminals.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A building southerly swell from the tropical systems out in the
western Atlantic, but well away from the waters will result in
increasing seas with the potential for SCA conditions on the
ocean waters after midnight Tuesday. Seas are forecast to
build to 7 to 10 ft by daybreak Wednesday. In addition, NE gusts
25 to 30 kt are expected on the ocean waters late Tuesday night
as the pressure gradient strengthens between building high
pressure to the north and the broad area of low pressure off the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts. Gusts will be close to 25 kt
elsewhere during this time.
NE flow with gusts 25-30 kt are likely on the ocean from Wed
into Thu. There could be times when gusts on non-ocean waters
reach 25-30 kt late Tue night into Wed morning and up to 25 kt
late Wed night. Ocean seas peaking at 8-11 ft daytime Wed should
gradually subside thereafter, and may not completely fall below
5 ft until daytime Fri.
Have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 11 pm tonight through 8
am Wednesday due to the increasing swells on the ocean waters.
This will likely need to be extended in time, and all other non
ocean waters will likely be added with the Monday afternoon
package if the wind forecasts remains similar. Being late 2nd
period, decided to hold off for more confidence on 25 kt gust
winds on the non ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected this week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a continuous NE flow during mid week along with large
swells from Humberto and Imelda, total water levels and surf
will both be on the increase. Coastal flooding appears unlikely
as we will be in between moon phases, but high surf, dangerous
rip currents, and some minor oceanfront beach flooding/erosion
may be possible Wed/Thu.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMC/DR
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion