Great Lakes Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

479
FXUS63 KAPX 111043
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
643 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Perhaps an isolated shower/sprinkle today, most if not all will be
  dry.
- Some fog potential tonight.
- Warmer Sunday into early next week, followed by more
  seasonable temps.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Upper low that gave us showers yesterday will drift southeast across
the eastern Great Lakes through the day. Thus, any significant
upward motion will move out of northern Michigan. In fact, upper
ridging begins to fill in behind this feature, with sfc high
pressure to the north nudging in to influence the region. It will
still be cool in the low levels, with a pronounced inversion above
the shallow boundary layer. Thus, plenty of daytime cumulus will
develop through the day, but any organized showery activity will
cease. That being said, a few low probability light lake
induced/enhanced showers/sprinkles cannot be ruled out, but
perhaps thats grasping at straws. Consequently, impactful
weather will be nill today with high temperatures in the upper
50s to low 60s.
Not much difference into the overnight hours with dry to mostly dry
conditions continuing. Attention turns to any fog potential through
the overnight hours. Modest nighttime cooling and gentle east flow
may provide enough low level moisture to produce fog in spots. Some
of the HREF ENS guidance is picking up on this potential with modest
probabilities for 346.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion