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New Paltz New York Weather Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS61 KALY 141049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 649 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS... As a coastal storm departs away from the region, showers will end this morning with some partial clearing by this afternoon. Dry and cool weather will expected for Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures will moderate towards the weekend. The next chance of rain will be with a cold front towards the end of the weekend.

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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 138 AM EDT...A coastal low (around 1008 mb) continues to be situated just east of the Delaware Beaches, while high pressure remains situated over southeastern Canada. The gradient between the two systems continue to allow for north to northeast winds over the area, although the strongest gusts are located closer to the coast. Recent observations have shown a few gusts still around 25 mph across the high terrain of western New England, where the local terrain has enhanced the flow. Otherwise, winds across the rest of the area are generally in the 5 to 10 mph range. The coastal low will continue to slowly depart off to the east through the day today, so winds will be decreasing through the day and little impact from winds are expected for our area.

Radar imagery continues to show some spotty light rain showers, mainly for western New England. Based on CAMs and radar trends, some additional showers are possible through about the mid- morning hours, mainly for the Capital Region on eastward. Additional QPF is light, with expected amounts under a tenth of an inch.

With the coastal low departing and a northerly flow in place, the threat for tidal flooding has ended along the Hudson River and river levels will stay below action stage, even during high tide.

IR satellite imagery continues to show widespread clouds, including a lot of low stratus. CAMs and satellite trends suggest these clouds will stick around for most of the day, with drier air finally arriving towards evening. Some breaks in the clouds may arrive closer to sunset, with clearing from northwest to southeast for late in the day. Despite the clouds, temps will still be close to normal for mid October, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. With the expected partial clearing, temps will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s for lows tonight with a continued light northerly breeze.

A moisture starved cold front will be crossing the region early on Wednesday, along with a weak upper level disturbance. A more stronger upper level shortwave trough will be diving from Quebec into northern New England as well. While no precip is expected with the boundary, cooler and drier air will be moving into the region for Wednesday into Wednesday night. While some clouds are possible on Wednesday morning with the passing disturbance, it will be fairly clear behind the front for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Northwest winds will be a little breezy at times Wednesday afternoon and the wind will linger into Wednesday night. After highs in the 50s on Wednesday, lows will fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s for lows on Wednesday night. The breeze in place may help frost from forming for most areas, but some colder outlying and sheltered areas could see some frost forming towards daybreak Thursday. The only areas still officially in the growing season is the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT, and even these areas are past the median date for first freeze, so temps at these levels are not unexpected or unusual by any stretch.

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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will be located over the Great Lakes on Thursday and it will be building towards the area for Thursday night. There still will be enough of a gradient in place for a northerly breeze on Thursday afternoon, with some gusts in the 15-25 mph range. It will be fairly sunny on Thursday, but also cool, as 850 hpa temps will only be around 0 C, so highs look to be in the 50s for most spots. Thursday night will be another chilly night, with less wind thanks to the high pressure area closer to being overhead. Lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s and some frost/freeze headlines may be needed for areas where the growing season is still ongoing.

Temps will be moderating towards the weekend as the high pressure area drops southward and eventually southeast of the region. With continued dry conditions and a fairly clear sky, highs will go from the 50s on Friday back into the 60s by Saturday.

The next frontal system will be impacting the region for Sunday into Monday, as a cold front approaches from the west. A wave of low pressure may develop along the boundary as well. Have followed the NBM POPs closely, with likely showers by late Sunday into Sunday night. It should be fairly mild ahead of the front, with highs well into the 60s and even some low 70s for Sunday before cooling down again for Monday behind the front. Some timing differences are being seen in the models so this could change as it gets closer in time.

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.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12z Wednesday...As of 600 AM, conditions range from VFR at KGFL, to MVFR at KALB/KPOU/KPSF as a coastal low continues to rotate just off the coast of Delaware and Virginia. This low will slowly move east through the morning and early afternoon, with high pressure building in from the west. Primarily MVFR conditions to start will improve to VFR for all terminals this afternoon with ceilings lifting and increasing dry air at the low levels. These VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the period, though there is a low potential for fog/mist development late in the period at KGFL/KPSF. Will refrain from mention of this in the TAF due to low confidence with lingering cloud cover. Winds will be out of the N/NW around 5-10 kts today, becoming light & variable this evening and overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

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.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.

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SYNOPSIS...27 SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM...27 AVIATION...17

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion

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