Rock Hill, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

437
FXUS61 KBGM 300642
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
242 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will result in a prolonged period of dry weather
through the week and into the weekend. Temperatures will remain
above average today, but much cooler air moves in Wednesday and
Thursday. Areas of frost appear likely Wednesday night,
especially in the sheltered valleys. After the brief return of
fall like conditions, temperatures moderate again late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A blanket of high clouds associated with the tropical activity
off the Southeast coast will continue to stream across the area
this morning before gradually retreating back to the south and
east throughout the day. Despite these higher clouds, much of
CNY is expected to turn out mostly sunny, while NE PA and the
southern Catskills see some dimmed sunshine this morning with
brightening skies this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures
remain above average today before a taste of fall arrives
tomorrow. Highs today will be in the 70s with some valley
locations across the Twin Tiers and NE PA making a run at 80
degrees.
A fresh, sprawling surface high currently centered over
northern Ontario will see its center gradually drift east over
James Bay by this evening and into northwestern Quebec by early
Wednesday. This surface high will start to expand southeastward
tonight, and with a north-northeast flow developing, dry and
much cooler Canadian air will start to filter in. It will be a
noticeably cooler night tonight under clear skies with lows
mainly in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. As the high continues to
drift slowly south and east, more fall-like conditions settle
in Wednesday with plenty of sunshine. Highs Wednesday will
mostly be in the low to mid 60s, with some of the higher terrain
in CNY and the Catskills stuck in the 50s. A few of the valleys
in NE PA remain a bit warmer in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Clear skies and light winds will set up ideal conditions for
radiational cooling Wednesday night, and much of the area will
see lows dropping back into the 30s. Areas of frost are likely
to form especially in the sheltered valleys. There may also be a
few areas across the Catskills and northern Oneida County that
may reach or even drop below freezing Wednesday night. With the
growing season still active, there looks to be a good chance for
frost/freeze headlines into early Thursday morning.
High pressure continues to dominate our weather through Friday
leading to dry conditions and plenty of sun. The high eventually
moves offshore Friday, and after another cool day Thursday,
temperatures will start to moderate once again bringing an end
to the brief bout of autumn-like conditions. Highs on Thursday
will be largely in the 60s with lows Thursday night ranging from
the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Highs Friday range from the upper
60s to the low 70s over much of the region. Areas closer to the
northern Finger Lakes can reach the mid 70s Friday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The prolonged dry and sunny conditions will continue through
the weekend and into Monday as high pressure still dominates the
weather pattern. With the high remaining centered off the mid-
Atlantic coast, a south to southwesterly flow will advect in
warmer air and send our high temperatures back well above
average through early next week. Highs Saturday look to be
largely in the mid to upper 70s with some spots making a run at
80 degrees. Sunday and Monday are expected to be in the upper
70s and low 80s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper
40s and 50s into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A high cloud shield from Tropical Storm Imelda will cover most
of the area tonight. This will help reduce radiational cooling
and limit fog development across the area. VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period at AVP/BGM/ITH/RME. SYR could
see some patchy MVFR restrictions due to fog before sunrise, but
if restrictions do form, they should lift pretty quickly after
sunrise.
ELM is where the forecast gets very tricky as the clouds
overhead will keep temps from crashing, but they have already
fallen into the mid 40s with calm winds. The crossover temp is
39 so prolonged thick fog is not expected, but patchy ground fog
has already formed, which has dropped vis down to IFR for a
brief period before 2am. Given the current trends, thinking is
that there will be patchy IFR and lower conditions through the
overnight hours as shallow ground fog moves across the valley.
VFR conditions return after 8am, lasting through the TAF period.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Saturday...VFR with localized VLIFR fog
possible at valley airports.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion