Stafford, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

813
FXUS61 KBUF 231039
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
639 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving trough of low pressure will bring beneficial rain to
the region through mid-week, with several rounds of showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Another low pressure system will move into
the Great Lakes late in the week, with additional rain chances in an
unsettled pattern.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across western and central NY
this morning. Modest forcing combined with PWATS around 1.75" will
support widespread showers across north-central NY, while widely
scattered showers come to an end across western NY.
An upper level low will spin over the Upper Great Lakes through
tonight. A southwest flow will continue to supply the eastern Great
Lakes with modest moisture. A southwest to northeast oriented
moisture axis will persist from northwest Pennsylvania to
central NY and be a focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms today. Weak subsidence and some mid-level drying
will build into western NY today. Breaks in the clouds will
arrive from west to east this afternoon. Daytime heating and
moisture will support weak surface based instability inland from
the lake shadows, and additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon. Average rainfall amounts will range
from 0.25-0.50" across interior portions of the western Southern
Tier to the southern Tug Hill region. Rainfall amounts will
taper off further north, with the exception of where showers and
possibly a thunderstorm develop along lake breezes. Higher
amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Weak ridging will move into the forecast area tonight. Widely
scattered showers are possible this evening, before mostly dry
conditions continue overnight. Areas of fog are expected to develop
across the forecast area tonight. Higher confidence of fog
development is across the higher terrain and southeast of Lake
Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A closed low over the upper Great Lakes will ever so slowly churn
east and southeast towards the region. Meanwhile, shortwave energy
ejecting out of the Bridger-Teton and Unitas mountain range will
quickly track eastward and begin to interact with this closed low.
As this interaction occurs, a sfc low tracking across the mid-
Mississippi valley is advertised to strengthen as it nears the Ohio
Valley late Wednesday. Increasing moisture (PW surging to 1.7") and
lift ahead of the low will potentially bring the next round of
showers and storms by late Wednesday afternoon-evening which could
even persist all the way through the day Friday. That being said,
there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty in timing and also
the degree of shower coverage. For what its worth...there appears to
be a general trend towards drier weather as we move into Friday
afternoon-night and into the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak sfc high pressure over the region will deliver dry weather on
Saturday. There is very weak moisture starved front that is
advertised to move quickly through the Lower Lakes Saturday night.
Sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley rapidly builds east behind the
front Sunday with dry weather continuing through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread light showers will move east across north central NY
this morning. A moist airmass will continue to support a mix of
flight conditions across the region this morning. Overall,
IFR/MVFR conditions are expected this morning. Flight
conditions will slowly improve during daylight hours while
showers taper off across the Southern Tier and north-central NY.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form
inland from the lake shadows this afternoon, and may produce a
brief period of IFR or below at KIAG, KBUF, or KROC. Confidence
is low at this time.
Showers will taper off tonight with mostly dry weather expected
across the region. Areas of fog are expected to develop which may
produce IFR or below at TAF sites. Chances are medium to high at
KJHW and KROC.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds and calm waters are expected through tonight. A
northeast wind will create a moderate chop on the waters starting
Wednesday. There is a low chance of Small Craft Advisories through
Friday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion