Tiki Island, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

320
FXUS64 KHGX 042252
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
- Hot and dry temperatures expected today with highs in the mid to
  upper 90s and maybe even reaching the triple digits out west.
- Increasing humidity on top of Friday`s hot temperatures will
  lead to heat index values peaking in the 102-106F range.
- Rain chances return over the weekend and into early next week as
  moisture increases ahead of a frontal boundary.
- Drier air behind an early week cold front leads to tranquil
  conditions next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
There was certainly temperature envy this morning as those of us
near and south of I-10 had to sit in our mid to upper 70s while
those north of I-10 (especially in the Brazos Valley) got to enjoy
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. We`re totally not jealous or
anything...but anyway we`ll all be on even footing this afternoon
though as the heat cranks up. With 850mb temperatures in the 21-24C
range and southwesterly to westerly winds prevailing into the early
afternoon hours, we`ll see temperatures peak in the mid to upper 90s
area wide. Areas along and west of the Brazos River could see high
temperatures reach the 100F mark! Drier air can be both a blessing
and a curse since it heats and cools more efficiently than our
typical humid airmass. We`re not all included in the dry air party
though as those along the coast have enough humidity in place to
warrant monitoring heat index values. Coastal areas are expected to
see peak heat index values in the 102-106F range today.
Since we`re on the topic of humidity, it will be gradually
increasing areawide as we head into the weekend so hopefully you
enjoyed the cool/dry air from this morning (if you were lucky enough
to experience it)! Tonight into Friday morning, we`ll only drop down
into the mid to upper 70s as onshore flow re-establishes. That will
lead to Friday`s temperatures being a degree or two "cooler" due to
the increased humidity, but it`ll FEEL hotter. We`ll be keeping an
eye on heat index values again as we are anticipating most areas to
peak in the 102-106F range on Friday. Juuuust a bit outside of
the advisory threshold, but high enough to remind y`all about the
importance of heat safety. Temperatures decrease going into the
weekend and that can only mean one thing...well not THAT one thing
just yet...although there is a cold front of sorts on the
horizon!
We`re continuing to monitor what is currently Tropical Storm Lorena
in the eastern Pacific as it makes a close approach to the Baja
Peninsula over the next few days. The wording of that is quite a bit
different compared to what we discussed yesterday...why`s that?!
Well...there`s been quite the shift in model guidance! Yesterday,
the consensus took the remnants into NM/TX whereas today the
consensus keeps it west of the Baja Peninsula. That`s a BIG
difference, but we are still anticipating increasing moisture over
the weekend being aided by various shortwave impulses and an
approaching frontal boundary. So, rain chances will still be
elevated over the weekend leading to our high temperatures
only reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s. The best chance of rain
still looks to be Sunday into Monday as the cold front nudges in.
WPC maintains all of southeast TX in a marginal risk (level 1 of
4) for excessive rainfall on Sunday, and we could certainly see
some locally heavy rainfall with PW values near the 90th
percentile.
The cold front does appear to be more of a backdoor front as the
drier air moves in from the northeast, but as long as we all get in
on the drier air this time it doesn`t matter where it comes from!
There are still some questions on the exact timing, but generally
looks to be a late Sunday into Monday event (GFS is a bit slower on
the timing). Either way, there is decent model consensus on dew
points areawide dropping into the 50s/60s through at least midweek.
Ridging aloft looks to build in as well leading to a period of
tranquil conditions. High temperatures will be on a gradual climb,
but still manageable in the low to mid 90s around midweek. Low
temperatures are expected to be downright pleasant dropping down
into the mid 60s to low 70s for most locations.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
VFR conditions will generally persist through the period, although
there may be a brief period of patchy fog at SGR and CLL during
the predawn hours on Friday. Light, variable winds will continue
through this evening and into early Friday morning with south to
southeasterly winds developing by the mid to late morning around
10kt. These winds will persist through sunset before becoming
predominately light and variable again.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
The period of benign marine conditions persists with light to
occasionally moderate winds (in the overnight to early morning
hours) and low seas prevailing going into the early half of the
weekend. Chances for showers and storms return over the weekend and
into early next week as moisture increases ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. This front is expected to move near the coast
Sunday and may linger either along the coast or just offshore going
into early next week. As a result, expect winds and seas to increase
over the latter half of the weekend extending into early next week
potentially requiring caution flags at times.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  96  74  90 /   0   0   0  30
Houston (IAH)  77  95  77  93 /   0   0   0  40
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  81  90 /   0   0  10  30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion