Treaty Oak Park Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

045
FXUS62 KJAX 091736
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
136 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Long Duration Nor`easter Begins Today. Wind Advisories for the
  Coastal Counties this Afternoon through Early Sunday Morning.
  Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters this Afternoon through Saturday
  Night. Highest Water Levels of the Fall Season Expected from
  Friday through the Weekend. Coastal Flood Warning for Moderate
  Tidal Flooding from Fri Morning - Sat Night. Destructive Beach
  Erosion at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide
- Heavy Downpours & Isolated Thunderstorms along the I-95
  Corridor. Localized Flooding Possible at Coastal Locations
  through Friday Night. Widespread 2-3 Totals for Coastal
  Northeast FL with Locally Higher Amounts Possible
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Nor`easter conditions will continue to ramp up tonight as high
pressure continues to wedge down the SE US coastline and produces
a tight pressure gradient with the sharpening coastal trough over
the Atlantic waters just offshore the NE FL coast. The strong NE
flow will produce sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-45
mph along the Atlantic Coastal counties, with strongest winds at
the beachfront locations and Wind Advisory will remain in effect.
Over inland locations breezy NE winds will continue with sustained
winds around 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph at times. The low
level convergence in the NE flow and mid/upper level lift along
with PWATs approaching 2 inches will continue to ramp up rainfall
chances with widespread showers and scattered storms for the
Atlantic Coastal counties and I-95 corridor with locally heavy
rainfall, especially where stationary convergent rain bands can
set up and while recent rainfall amounts have been sparse, still
can`t rule out the need of a short-fuse Flood Watch depending on
where the heavy rainfall sets up. Further inland, expect scattered
to numerous showers and isolated storms with some heavy downpours
but flooding risk is lower over inland areas, since any heavy
rainfall that falls along the Atlantic Coastal areas may also see
an enhanced flooding risk due to the above normal tidal values
during times of high tide, which may also bring about flash flood
potential in urban centers through the upcoming weekend. The N-NE
flow will bring down some cooler temps over inland areas with lows
falling to around 60F over inland SE GA, 65-70F range over inland
NE FL/Coastal SE GA, lower 70s along the NE FL coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Strong high pressure will be to the north northeast on Friday, as an
area of low pressure develops off the east coast of central FL. With
this pattern, winds will remain elevated across the area.
The high to the north will weaken Friday night into Saturday,
allowing the low pressure area to move north, placing it to the
northeast of the region by Saturday afternoon.
The low will move up along the Carolina coast Saturday night, with a
trough trailing from it into South FL, as a weaker ridge extends
inland from high pressure to the north.
With this pattern winds will remain elevated and gusty across the
area through Saturday, with highs winds along the coast. As the low
pulls away, and the high builds Saturday night, inland winds
will subside, as the coast still remains gusty.
Precipitation chances will be across the whole forecast area on
Friday due to the proximity of low pressure, with greatest chances
near the coast. These chances will then gradually decrease Friday
night through Saturday, as the low tracks away.
Temperatures will trend below normal during the days, and near
during the nights this period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
As weak high pressure builds across the area Sunday, a trough will
extend down the east coast from the low over the northeastern US.
Subsidence under the ridge should provide for a mainly clear and dry
day Sunday. There could be lingering clouds though along east coast
due to the trough. With sunshine expected temperatures will moderate
to near normal highs.
Weak high pressure ridging will remain in place over region through
Monday. A trough extending from northeastern low will move southeast
across the area Monday night, but a dry passage is expected.
There are some discrepancies in longer term guidance for
Wednesday into Thursday, with regards to whether troughing leads
to precipitation chances. At this time continuing to trend with
drier solution.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Nor`easter conditions continue to ramp up with all sites now down
to MVFR CIGS and gusty NE winds around 15-20 knots with higher
gusts and PROB30 groups have been used to show the chances for
lower MVFR CIGS and lower MVFR or IFR CIGS at times through the
period. Overall the CIGS will lower through the TAF period with
higher chances of IFR CIGS in the last 09-18Z time frame. Highest
wind gusts of 30-35 knots have been held in the SGJ/SSI terminals
while the best chance of TSRA is at SGJ, although still low enough
to only carry VCTS through the TAF period until more storms
actually develop. Lower vsbys expected in heavy activity at SGJ
through the entire TAF period. For now expect winds to remain
mixed at the surface at inland TAF sites of VQQ/GNV so did not
include any LLWS (Low level wind shear), but if surface winds drop
enough more than expected tonight, that may need to be added.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Northeast winds will continue to strengthen as a coastal trough
develops over the near shore waters tonight. Showers and embedded
storms will begin to increase in coverage through Friday. Gale
Warning will remain posted through Saturday night with frequent
gusts to gale force are expected. Low pressure will then develop
along the frontal boundary over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to
our region on Friday, with this feature gradually strengthening
as it moves northward towards the Carolinas this weekend. Strong
north-northeasterly winds and building, very rough surf will
create dangerous conditions throughout our local waters through
early Sunday. Northerly winds will gradually subside late this
weekend into early next week, with elevated seas also likely slow
to subside across our local waters.
Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory
conditions will ramp upwards through tonight and continue through
the upcoming weekend as surf/breakers build into the 7-10 ft range
from Friday onward into the weekend. Severe beach erosion is
expected during times of high tide through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Minor Coastal/Tidal flooding levels are expected through tonight
for all NE FL/SE GA beachfront locations and along the St. Johns
River Basin as the Northeast flow continue to ramp upwards and
will keep Coastal Flood Advisory in place. Will upgrade the
Coastal Flood Watch to a Coastal Flood Warning, starting with the
late morning high tide cycle on Friday and continuing for each
high tide cycle through Saturday Night, and may need to be
extended into Sunday, depending on how quickly the winds diminish
and shift more offshore late in the weekend.
The latest 06Z/12Z PETSS/ETSS guidance still looks a bit too high
on the actual peak tidal values of almost 4 feet MHHW on the
beachfront and close to 3 feet MHHW on the St. Johns River, but
despite the high bias at later time frames, still expect at least
Moderate Coastal/Tidal flooding values of close to 3 ft MHHW for
NE FL/SE GA beachfront locations (highest since Hurricane Nicole
in November 2022) and into the 2.0 to 2.5 ft MHHW range on the St.
Johns River Basin (highest since Hurricane Milton from last
October). Any heavy rainfall that falls into the St. Johns River
Basin during this event will only help exacerbate these values and
likely lingering tidal flooding well into next week for the St.
Johns River Basin, while the Atlantic beachfront locations should
fall back closer to astronomical tidal levels by early next week
as the wind flow becomes more offshore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  72  60  77 /  70  40  30  20
SSI  65  74  65  76 /  80  70  70  40
JAX  67  76  65  78 /  90  70  60  40
SGJ  70  78  69  78 / 100  90  70  50
GNV  68  78  64  80 /  40  50  40  20
OCF  70  80  66  79 /  40  50  30  20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-124-125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-125-138-233-
     325-333-433-533-633.
Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     FLZ038-124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     GAZ154-166.
High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450-
     452-454-470-472-474.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
     474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion