Abraham Lake, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

474
FXAK69 PAFG 052332
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 PM AKDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Not a whole lot of change to the forecast, mostly increasing
confidence for the track and strength of the coastal storm as well
as impacts for the entire state. Along the West Coast, this storm
will impact every community bringing significant flooding and/or
erosion as well as strong winds and heavy rain. On the Western
North Slope and north of the Seward Peninsula, the chance for
significant coastal flooding and/or erosion is increasing as well,
especially as the winds turn northwest Wednesday into Thursday. In
the Interior, there will be an abundance of rain and wind midweek
with the strongest being in the AK Range Passes. Light to moderate
snow is expected in the Central/Eastern Brooks Range with heavy
snow in the Western Brooks Range.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A quiet day with only isolated to scattered rain showers and AK
  Range winds gradually diminishing.
- Similar story tomorrow with a weak front bringing chances for
  rain showers, mostly north of Fairbanks.
- Moderate to heavy rain in the Interior Tuesday night through
  Thursday with upwards of 1-2 inches of rain possible.
- Strong winds across the Interior Tuesday afternoon through
  Wednesday, gusts as high as 35 possible in the valleys
  (including Fairbanks), up to 50 mph in the White Mountains and
  Dalton Highway Summits, up to 70 mph in the AK Range Passes.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Improving conditions today and tomorrow along the coast, another
  round of rain in the Interior tomorrow, mostly east of the
  Nulato Hills.
- Bering Sea low moves northeast tomorrow afternoon, rain and
  mostly weak wind moves into St. Lawrence Island during the
  afternoon.
- The low rapidly strengthens tomorrow night, periods of heavy
   rain and wind gusts to 60 mph move into the Yukon Delta, St.
   Lawrence Island and Norton Sound as early as Tuesday morning.
- Rain and wind gets to Kotzebue as early as 12PM on Tuesday.
- There will be a prolonged period of wind gusts of 40 to 60+ mph
   from the south/southwest from the Yukon Delta northward from
   Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night. Strongest winds
   will be in the Yukon Delta, St. Lawrence Island and through the
   Bering Strait.
- Though most gusts will be capped around 60-65 mph, some gusts
   may be as high as 75 mph, especially in typical windy
   spots/higher terrain in the Bering Strait Region, and Yukon
   Delta.
- Rainfall totals through Wednesday afternoon will be around
   0.50 to 1 inch in St. Lawrence Island, Bering Strait and
   northern Seward Peninsula, up to 1.50 inches everywhere else.
- Coastal impacts will be discussed in the "coastal hazard
  potential" section.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Mostly quiet weather today, but gusty east/northeast winds
  continue through the afternoon along the coast then diminish
  tonight. Light rain and snow diminishing in coverage as well.
  South winds ramp up Tuesday PM and continue through at least
  Wednesday night. Gusts upwards of 45 mph in Atigun Pass and 55
  mph along the Chukchi Sea/Western Arctic Coast.
- Widespread rain for the North Slope and snow in the Brooks Range
  develops Tuesday afternoon and progresses northeast through the
  night. Snow will be heavy at times north/east of Shungnak with
  light to moderate snow north of Coldfoot (Atigun Pass). Snow and
  rain will continue through Wednesday, then turn more showery
  heading into Thursday.
- Storm total snow accumulations still seem to be 1 to 3 inches
   in Anaktuvuk Pass and the North Slope, 4 to 9 inches in Atigun
   Pass and potentially upwards of 18 to 24 inches in the Western
   Brooks Range north/east of Shungnak.
- Coastal impacts for the big storm Wednesday/Thursday will be in
  "coastal hazard potential" section.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A rapidly weakening low in the Bering is moving out of the area to
the north. A 993 mb low in the Aleutians is moving into South-
Central tonight. This low will provide our support for isolated
to scattered showers later today and through Tuesday morning in
the Central and Eastern Interior. With the ridge moving off to
the east, our pressure gradient across the Alaska Range will
slack, and our current threat of gap winds will subside gradually
this afternoon and tonight.
Looking towards Monday, a 980 mb low will move over Shemya on the
Aleutian Islands. This low will move into the Central Bering
overnight Monday. During this time the low will begin to rapidly
intensify. The 12/18z Deterministic suite of models all strengthen
the low to 959 to 964 mb in the center of the Gulf of Anadyr. The
ECMWF Deterministic is the strongest at 959 mb while the CMC is
the "weakest" at 964 mb, but the strength isn`t the concern with
this storm, it`s the track. While the models have come together
well with the strength, which will be around 960 mb, they have
also come together on the track. Just as we thought the last few
days, the models caught up and the low will track into the Gulf of
Anadyr by Tuesday afternoon. Given the consistency in the models,
our confidence has dramatically increased for a strong, impactful
storm for most of the coast. Past Tuesday, the ensembles and
deterministic models are in generally good agreement that the low
will move west of St. Lawrence Island then just north of the
Bering Strait. With this track there will be a large fetch of
strong southwesterly winds into the West Coast. The warm front
that is connected to this low is accompanied with a very potent
850 mb jet. This jet is 60 to 75 knots that will stretch from the
Bering Sea to the Kuskokwim Valley and then the Tanana Valley.
With heavy rainfall expected to accompany this front, we are
expecting winds to be able to freely mix down. There will be an
atmospheric river that is feeding moisture into Mainland Alaska.
This atmospheric river is producing precipitable water anomalies
of 3 to 5 sigma across the Interior. Widespread 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain is likely with some areas receiving up to 2 inches of rain,
especially in any terrain above 1000 feet. The impacts from this
system will be a multi-day event stretching from Monday night to
Thursday morning.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The Bering Sea low will continue to move northward and bring strong
west/northwest winds up to around 35 mph sustained and 50 mph gusts
to much of the Arctic Coast through the weekend. With the amount
of moisture that this coastal storm will be bringing in, rain
showers, or even snow showers at high elevations, are likely for
the majority of the state. By Thursday afternoon, around 2 inches
of total rainfall are expected for most of the Interior. Southerly
gap winds in the Alaska Range passes are likely to gust up to 70
mph from Tuesday through Thursday morning with strong south winds
likely to reach Ft. Greely as well.
Looking even further into the extended, the next Bering Sea system
will arrive late Friday and primarily impact the West Coast. This
system will likely bring additional rain and strong winds.
&&
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 through 5...
Coastal Flood Watches will remain in place today and will be
upgraded to warnings or advisories tomorrow. There is still quite
a bit of spread for how high the water levels will get at each
community. And the difference between warning/advisory doesn`t
mean "impactful/non-impactful". This WILL impact every community
in different ways, including significant flooding and/or
significant erosion. While some places won`t see "warning level
flooding" there will be significant impacts to beaches, air
strips, dumps, and more. Details below.
We are anticipating 2 to 3 high tides that will see higher waters.
For communities that are south of the Bering Strait, these high
tides will be Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday morning, and Wednesday
afternoon. North of the Bering Strait it will be the two Wednesday
high tides. There will still be concerns Thursday morning
particularly when the winds turn northwesterly from the Northern
Seward Peninsula to the Western Arctic Coast. Hooper Bay to Nunam
Iqua is expected to see 4 to 7 feet above mean high water (MHHW).
Stebbins to Shaktoolik will be 4 to 9 feet above MHHW. Koyuk will
have the highest water of 5 to 10 feet above MHHW. Elim to Wales
will see 4 to 8 feet above MHHW. Gambell and Savoonga will have 2
to 5 feet above MHHW, highest in Gambell on the west side.
Shishmaref to Kotzebue is expecting 3 to 8 feet above MHHW. Kotzebue
specifically should be prepared for flooding rivaling the
flooding event of 2024 as water levels may approach or exceed that
level (which was 6.5 feet). Red Dog to Point Lay is expecting 4
to 8 feet above MHHW. Wainwright to Utqiagvik is expecting 2 to 5
feet above MHHW.
We are expecting significant erosion for many along the coast
with coastal flooding likely, especially in more vulnerable
locations. Preparations should be made NOW for a strong coastal
storm everywhere along the coast as most, if not all communities
will see some sort of impact.
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ801>803-815>818.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ820>822-824-825-827.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-814.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-815-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Bianco
Srinivasan - Extended

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion