Abshire Cemetery Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

387
FXUS64 KLCH 151748
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1248 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moisture will return throughout Thursday and Friday as onshore
  flow becomes reestablished
- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend
- Small rain chances return on Friday, with more substantial rain
  chances Saturday into Sunday with the approach and passage of an
  upper level trough and associated cold front
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
A ridge at the surface and aloft continues in place across the
central sections of the country, from the Great Lake to the gulf
coast. The flow across SE TX and LA has been northeast to east which
is keeping humidity low, but afternoon temperatures above climo
averages for mid October. Also this afternoon, an upper low is
moving east across the Great Basin.
Through tonight and into Thursday the ridge aloft and at the surface
will slowly shift east as the upper low over the Great Basin moves
into the Rockies. The flow locally will become onshore increasing
dewpoints 5 to 10 degrees into Thursday morning and afternoon. The
aforementioned upper low will eject northeast into Canada at the
end of the short term, however this will send a weak cold front into
northern Texas increasing the onshore flow locally. The
moistening trend will continue into Friday with the slightly
increasing onshore flow until dewpoints climb into the upper 60s
to low 70s area wide. Isolated to widely scattered showers, and
perhaps a thunderstorm, will be possible Friday afternoon or
evening in SE TX and western LA, however accumulation will be
minimal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Saturday a short wave will move across Texas and into the
Mississippi Valley. This will shove the weak cold front south to
the gulf coast. Moisture will be sufficient to produce scattered
showers and storms along the ahead of the frontal boundary,
however it is of note that guidance is gradually decreasing the
amount of rainfall for the region. Currently, forecast amounts
range from 0.1 to 0.25 in SE TX and along the I-10 corridor to
near 0.5 in Cen LA. If a location is lucky enough to get a storm,
it may settle the dust for a day, but no significant dent in the
developing drought is anticipated. Outside of the decreasing
rainfall amounts from the available guidance, it is also of note
that timing has been gradually shifting backwards with the latest
GFS now stalling the front across Cen LA and interior SE TX Sunday.
If the cold front does sweep off the coast this weekend, which is
in the official forecast and in line with the ECM, the minimal
cooling that will occur will be short lived as moisture is
expected to increase again by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated through the period, however thin
ground fog may be possible around sunrise Thu. Winds will be light
with a gradual veering from NE to SE.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Winds will gradually shift ESE to SE Thurs through Fri as surface
high pressure moves off to our east. Thurs night into Fri, winds
will begin to increase slightly, with gusts around 15-18 kts. Now
through the weekend, waves will remain below 4 feet. Rain chances
will return on Friday and continue until the passage of a cold
front on Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Low RH and dry conditions will keep fire concerns elevated across
the region through this afternoon. Currently, multiple parishes
have burn bans in place across Acadiana along with counties in
southeast Texas. Conditions will start to improve slowly tomorrow
and more substantially on Friday as south winds will bring in more
moisture. Rain chances will increase Friday into the weekend with
the approach and passage of an upper trough and cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  57  89  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  63  87  67  86 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  62  87  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  85  70  86 /   0   0  10  30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion