Aguilar, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

062
FXUS65 KPUB 032009
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
209 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers start to increase along the Continental Divide tonight.
- Scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday, with a
  strong to low end severe thunderstorm possible along and east
  of the I-25 corridor.
- Cooler and unsettled weather pattern in store for the late
  weekend into the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Tonight: Friday night starts to bring some active weather to
portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A digging
trough will be just west of Colorado across Nevada and Utah and
approaching the area, bringing increased flow and forcing. Along
with that, a modest uptick in moisture is anticipated as
southwesterly flow rises. With the increase in forcing and moisture,
scattered showers are expected to develop along the mountains
overnight, though mostly along the Continental Divide where
orographic forcing will be greatest. Snow levels will fall to around
11,500 ft, with snow above that elevation, and rain below it.
Elsewhere though, dry conditions are anticipated. Along with all of
that, winds will be breezy overnight in response to the approaching
trough, though particularly along the mountains and the far eastern
plains, where gusts around 25-35 mph are anticipated. Otherwise,
clouds will start to increase along the western portions of the
forecast area, with mild temperatures across south central and
southeastern Colorado. Looking at temperatures, much of the area
will remain above seasonal lows for early October due to downsloping
winds, with the plains falling into the low 50s to low 60s, the
valleys into the 40s, and the mountains into the mid 30s to 40s.
Tomorrow: Heading into Saturday, active weather is anticipated for
south central and southeastern Colorado. The aforementioned trough
will be pushing over the region during this period, bringing a surge
in flow and forcing. In addition, modest moisture advection will
continue ahead of the wave. With the strong forcing and moisture in
place, showers and storms are expected to increase from west to east
as the wave pushes eastward through the day. Snow levels will fall
to around 11,000 ft, with snow above that elevation, and rain below
it. Along with all of that, given the strong forcing along the base
of the trough, a forced line of convection is expected to develop,
generally along and east of the I-25 corridor during the late
afternoon, despite low instability around 300-500 J/kg. Given high
bulk shear around 60 knots, a strong, to marginally severe,
thunderstorm will be possible with this line of convection. The main
threat with any stronger storm would be strong wind gusts up to 60
mph. Beyond all of that, gusty winds are expected across the area
Saturday as diurnal mixing forces higher winds aloft to the surface,
with wind gusts of 35-45 mph areawide. The breeziest winds are
anticipated along the mountains and far eastern plains. Otherwise,
pockets of mid to high level clouds are expected throughout the day,
with another warm afternoon for many. Speaking of temperatures, much
of the plains will remain at above seasonal values given downsloping
winds, with the mountains and valleys falling to around seasonal
values as the wave pushes over. With that all said, the plains will
warm into the 80s, the valleys into the 60s to low 70s, and the
mountains into the 30s and 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Saturday night-Sunday night...Models remain consistent with cooler and
much drier air filtering into the region within moderate west to southwest
flow aloft behind the system translating into the Upper Midwest through
the day Sunday. Overnight lows cool into the 40s across the plains, with
20s and 30s expected across the higher terrain. With that said, we have
issued a Freeze Watch for the San Luis Valley from 3 am to 9 am Sunday.
Passing system sends a backdoor front across the eastern Colorado through
the day, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 80s across
southeast Colorado on Sunday, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s across
the higher terrain. Low level moisture increasing within east to southeast
low level flow will bring the potential for a low clouds across the plains
Sunday night, with a few possible showers, especially across the Pikes
Peak region.
Monday-Friday...A cool and unsettled weather pattern remains in the offing
for the early and middle portion of next week, as varying amounts of
available moisture and occasional disturbances translate through the west
to southwest flow aloft, keeping chances of precipitation and temperatures
generally below seasonal levels. By the end of next week, upper level
ridging builds back across the region, with temperatures warming back to
around seasonal levels. However, models continue to differ on the timing
and location of possible subtropical moisture moving back into the Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds are expected to steadily increase this afternoon, with
gusts around 20-25 knots anticipated, especially for KALS and
KCOS. Winds are expected to lessen heading into the overnight
hours, though will quickly increase again late tomorrow morning
as a storm system passes over and diurnal mixing starts to
become established. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of
mid to high level clouds are anticipated.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
for COZ069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SIMCOE

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion