Alanreed, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

827
FXUS64 KAMA 192351
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
651 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Best thunderstorm chances this weekend will be Saturday, with
  the eastern panhandles having higher chances compared to the
  western panhandles.
- Next potential impactful weather system to bring rounds of
  showers and storms starts Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The panhandles currently finds itself in a relatively more stable
situation following departure of the main weather system and the
arrival of a secondary pushes of instability associated with the
back of the weather system. This means that this afternoon and
most of the evening will be a period of calm and fair weather
conditions. The temperatures will rise back to normal as the
weather system has already moved its cooler air out of the area.
Come late this evening the secondary push on the back side of the
weather system enters the panhandles. This will bring a corridor
of instability that will slowly transit west to east across the
panhandles. When it first arrives late in the evening it will have
lost the assistance of daytime heating to further enhance the
instability. Thus it will only have a very low chance of causing
rain showers and thunderstorms. This will hold true as the push
moves from the western panhandles to the central panhandles during
the overnight hours. With dawn on Saturday the sun will provide
additional daytime heating that will contribute to the unstable
conditions. This will lead to a gradual increase in the chance for
rain showers and thunderstorms. During the later morning hours
this will increase the chance of rain to low and then to a low to
moderate chance by the afternoon to evening. Some pockets of
higher instability of roughly 1000-2000 J/Kg can form during the
afternoon and evening hours of Saturday. This will allow for at
least a very low chance for the formation of strong to even
severe thunderstorms. The main threats from any strong to severe
storms in this environment will be large hail and damaging winds.
The area of rain and thunderstorms will slowly move to the east
so by the overnight hours of Saturday and Sunday it will move into
OK proper. This will spell the end of this weather system impact
to the panhandles.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Sunday and Monday will have a high chance of seeing a large scale
pattern shift across the Great Plains. This broadly should put the
southern plains and the panhandles under a northwest flow which
is favorable for bringing in smaller scale weather systems. There
is still a moderate confidence that the first of such weather
systems will push into the southern plains on Tuesday. However
there remains a large amount of discrepancies that make it very
hard to pin the exact nature of this system down. The first is the
shift in the weather pattern has a moderate chance of picking up
a low pressure off the west coast into the broader flow. In doing
so it could shift around the flow across the southern plains
making trajectory of the upcoming weather system hard to pin down.
This matter heavily as the trajectory of the system will dictate
exactly what impacts the panhandles would receive. If the system
moves unfavorably then the panhandles may see little to even no
precipitation. If we end up with a more favorable passage then we
could see fairly widespread rains. So for now we are keeping a low
chance for precipitation mid next week fully expecting to shift
this once we get a better idea of what the weather system will be
doing. Beyond this for the latter portions of next week the
uncertainty becomes to great to make any solid forecast beyond
the broad scale. For now the broad scale pattern is indicative
that cooler and wetter conditions would be favored for the
panhandles.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites throughout the 00Z TAF
period. Winds will be out of the south and southwest at 5-15 kts
with few to bkn high clouds.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...29

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion