Albertson, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

369
FXUS61 KOKX 111431
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will pass well east today. A weakening cold
front will approach late tonight and dissipate over the area on
Friday, followed by high pressure Friday night into Saturday
morning. Another weakening front will approach Saturday afternoon
and evening, followed by high pressure building from the
northwest from Sunday into early next week. A wave of low
pressure may approach during mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies are clear over the area, with some patchy valley fog
inland. This fog should quickly burn off early this morning, and
most of the area should see mostly sunny skies except north/west
of NYC, where some mid level clouds ahead of a mid level
shortwave trough will move across. Most places except well
inland and right along south facing shorelines should reach the
lower 80s for high temps today, and even those areas should
reach the upper 70s with the flow mostly northerly and any sea
breeze development occurring mid to late afternoon.
A weakening cold front will move into the area from the north
late tonight, accompanied by some clouds and a NE flow becoming
reestablished. Some patchy river valley fog may be possible.
Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s invof NYC and in the 50s
elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front should pass just south of the area on Fri, then
wash out in the late afternoon as low level flow turns SE.
Another weakening front should approach on Sat as a closed low
aloft moves across Quebec and a trailing shortwave trough moves
into the Northeast. Daytime temps during the period will only
be a little cooler than those of today, with highs in the 70s.
Nighttime temps should remain in the 50s to lower 60s, but may
warm up slightly Sat night with weak WAA becoming established.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest NBM was used for the long term without much modification,
just some slight adjustments for PoP and sky conditions on
Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
Similar to previous forecast, chances of rain showers Sunday
into Monday but did have slight chance of thunder as well with
new NBM for Sunday through Monday. This will be associated with
a sharp upper level trough moving across the region Sunday and
exiting east of the region Sunday night but on larger scale,
more longer wavelength trough pattern remains with colder air
aloft. Surface level may have some surface low pressure
development nearby towards start of next week with otherwise
high pressure.
The mid levels trend to show nearby cutoff low with otherwise
ridging building in from the west from early to midweek. At the
surface, weak high pressure builds in from the north but low
pressure also passes nearby towards the middle of next week.
Another slight chance of showers forecast for eastern areas for
Tuesday.
Confidence in the forecast is lower as models trends have been
to decrease rainfall and increase surface pressure in the local
region with models initialized last night. Therefore chance
POPs stay mostly under 40 percent for Sunday through late Monday
night.
Temperatures are not expected to deviate much from climatological
normals.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in from the north and west
through the TAF period.
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. MVFR to
lower conditions in parts of the interior have now ceased and
returned to VFR.
Regarding winds, they are northerly around 5 to 10 kts. Some
terminals will have a late day into early evening sea breeze
develop with winds switching to more southerly flow at nearly
the same wind speed as before. Winds expected to decrease to
near 5 kts or less tonight with variable direction. Winds become
more easterly for early Friday near 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Decreased confidence of sea breeze at KJFK this afternoon. Wind
may fluctuate between S-SW flow and N-NE flow.
Low chance of early evening sea breeze at KLGA and KEWR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday - Saturday: Outside of patchy early morning fog with
brief MVFR to IFR possible, mainly VFR.
Sunday - Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers. A
slight chance of thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA for hazardous ocean seas cancelled W of Fire Island Inlet
and trimmed back to end at 8 AM farther east as seas subside
more quickly than expected. The marine forecast thereafter will
have conditions on the waters remaining below SCA thresholds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The winds will be mostly out of the north today with a late day
into early evening sea breeze developing for some parts of the
coast. More onshore flow is expected Friday with wind speeds
closer to 10 kt.
Dominant swell today is out of the east, with swells of 8 second
period and 4 ft wave height. For Friday, easterly swell remains
but is less amplitude, 2 to 3 feet, along with slightly lower
wave periods closer to 6 to 7 seconds.
A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for all NYC and LI
ocean shorelines today through Friday.
Given astronomically high water levels from a recent full moon,
we can expect another round of minor coastal flooding today for
some locales along south shore of Nassau, the tidal waterways
of NE NJ and Staten Island, and in parts of the western Sound,
with advisories in effect. Water levels on the Great South Bay
in Suffolk may approach minor benchmarks in isolated spots with
the high tide as well due to tidal piling.
One last round of minor flooding is possible with the daytime
high tide cycle on Fri.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon
     for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon
     for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion