Alderson West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

603
FXUS61 KRNK 110643
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
243 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will tracking along the Atlantic coastline
will spread showers into mainly the Piedmont over the weekend.
North to northeasterly winds will become gusty later today
through Sunday. Drier weather returns by Tuesday, and conditions
remain dry through most of next week, with temperatures in the
60s and 70s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) Increasing clouds for all and increasing precipitation
chances east of the Blue Ridge by later today and tonight.
Today, the southern Appalachians will be caught between low
pressure over the Deep South and the compact low pressure
system over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, high
pressure will begin to weaken as a coastal low spins up along
the southeastern Atlantic seaboard.
It will take a while for moisture to recover, so expect cloudy
skies for most of the area today, denser as you move east.
Stratiform rain will develop by afternoon and evening, mainly
east of the Blue Ridge. Through early Sunday morning, expect QPF
amounts between a few hundredths just southeast of Roanoke to
closer to a quarter inch towards Danville and South Boston. Most
areas west of the Blue Ridge will see nothing but clouds.
Clouds and precipitation will limit high temperatures today in
the low to mid 60s for the mountains, and the mid to perhaps
upper 60s for the Piedmont. Tonight, readings will range from
the mid 40s to near 50 for the mountains, and the mid to upper
50s for the Piedmont.
Confidence in the near term is high for most parameters but
moderate for QPF amounts. If the system stays farther east,
the Piedmont will see less precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Rain near central Virginia Sunday and Monday
2) Slight warmup begins
An area of low pressure will be riding north up the east coast,
with its center just offshore. On Sunday it will pass closest
to Virginia, likely creating a deformation zone in the Mid-
Atlantic. As this system makes use of Atlantic moisture, rain
showers will spread inland, potentially reaching the
Appalachians. Best chances for rain will be in the Piedmont and
Southside of Virginia, lasting from Sunday afternoon into early
Monday morning. Rain will taper off from west to east as the low
weakens and moves out to sea.
Rain totals with this system won`t be extreme, but should be
beneficial for the Piedmont. That region could see 0.5-0.75" of
rain, and then further west into the NRV and near the Blue
Ridge, amounts will generally stay around a tenth or two.
Ridging over the southern plains and the Deep South will grow
and spread to exert its influence on western VA and NC. After
showers dry up Monday, that clear weather will remain as we get
further into the workweek. This will also make way for some
warming. Temperatures on Tuesday will reach into the upper
60s/low 70s for the majority of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Points:
1) Front to bring chance of precipitation early next week
This weekend, a positively-tilted trough will dip into the OH
Valley. High pressure will wedge in from the NE, keeping most of
the area dry. We may see a few light radar echoes over the
southern Blue Ridge, but for now have kept rain chances below
10%. After a warm Saturday, high temperatures drop by Sunday
into the 70s areawide Sunday and Monday as a dry backdoor front
moves through the region north to south. Overnight lows will be
close to normal.
Confidence in the long term is moderate.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...
In general, expecting mainly VFR conditions across the area
today, lower clouds are moving in from the east and will mainly
affect Danville today, but move east tonight as rain develops.
Another exception...river fog may develop along the New and
Greenbrier Rivers vcnty of KBCB and KLWB early this morning.
Winds are expected to remain from an northeasterly to easterly
direction today, favoring a more northerly direction over the
piedmont. Speeds will generally be in the 5 to 10 knot
range...gusty during the day.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Rain continues through Sunday, with the greatest chances east
of the Blue Ridge, which will bring sub VFR ceilings and
visibilities, as a low pressure system moves along the coast,
and gusty winds are possible for the weekend and into Monday.
Drier weather returns for the start of the next work week,
lasting through most of the week.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AS/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion