Allamuchy Township New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

202
FXUS61 KPHI 120617
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
217 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will affect the region through Monday bringing
significant impacts to parts of our area. Improving conditions
expected by Tuesday as the storm weakens and moves out to sea.
High pressure will begin building back into the region during
the middle to end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
***SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FROM A COASTAL
 STORM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY***
As of early this morning, a primary surface low was positioned
off the South Carolina coast. A secondary low was starting to
develop closer to Cape Hatteras, and this low will be the main
impact on our weather thru Monday. This low will strengthen as
it heads northward, eventually stalling just off the Jersey
Shore before starting to weaken and move away Monday night and
beyond. As the pressure gradient tightens on its northwestern
flank, a low level easterly jet will intensify, with winds
likely gusting up to 60 mph near the immediate coast and 50 mph
across interior coastal NJ and DE. Further inland, the jet
dwindles markedly, with only gusts of 30-40 mph in Philly and
even lower further inland. Strongest winds look to spread north
along the coast starting in Delaware late this afternoon and
continuing north to near Sandy Hook by late tonight before they
begin to dwindle towards dawn Monday. Thus, inherited high wind
warnings and wind advisories have been maintained as-is.
Rain-wise, however, the trend continues in the drier direction
for most. This low will be relatively compact, and drier air
will be trying to drain southwestward on its northwest flank, so
heavy rainfall across much of the area now looks like more of a
struggle. The entire area will get SOME rain, but it now looks
more likely that the majority of our region will receive less
than an inch. The exception is along the immediate coastal
counties, where 1-3 inches still looks probable, enhanced by the
strong low-level jet ejecting onto the coast. For coastal areas,
steadiest rain will be later today into tonight, but inland,
wraparound moisture as the low begins to weaken means that
Monday may be the wettest day overall.
Temperature-wise, most areas should be in the 60s again today,
but as cooler air wraps around the system, temps will fall into
the 50s tonight and much of the area will not be able to return
to the 60s on Monday thanks to clouds and lingering rain.
See the marine and coastal flood sections below for more details
on those hazards from this system.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions look to begin to improve Monday night as the initial
low looks to weaken but with the potential double barrel
solution and a secondary low developing, periods of light rain
and gusty winds will continue through much of the overnight
hours.
Through Tuesday, the remaining low will begin to shift further
away, leaving just breezy conditions (highest gusts around 20-30
mph along the coast) as well as a few lingering showers near
the coast. The low will push out to sea by Tuesday night with
dry conditions across the region and a gradual clearing of skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad high pressure will build across the Great Lakes region
from the middle of next week through the end of the long term
period and extend out over our region. As a result, the forecast
for next Wednesday through Saturday is currently dry across the
whole region. Wednesday could remain relatively mild before CAA
ramps up with northwest flow as the high approaches. The cooler
airmass will arrive by the end of the week, with below normal
temperatures anticipated for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
may begin to moderate on Saturday as the mid-level northwest
flow weakens.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Thru 12Z...MVFR ceilings, however times of VFR ceilings at some
terminals. Some spotty showers will result in visibility
restrictions at times. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts
to 20-25 knots late (highest toward the coast, slower increase
at KABE and KRDG). Low confidence regarding ceiling height and
visibility timing/details.
Today through Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions with rounds of rain
moving through, with the most widespread rain looking to occur
mostly tonight into Monday. Northeast winds 15-25 knots with
gusts 25-40 knots, highest at KACY and KMIV. Low confidence on
timing details, especially with visibility restrictions.
Outlook...
Monday Night...Restrictions expected with showers and low
clouds. Wind gusts diminish to around 15-25 kt out of the
north/northeast.
Tuesday...Conditons improve but sub-VFR conditions possible
with lingering showers and clouds. Wind gusts could get near 20
kt at times.
Wednesday and Thursday..VFR with no significant weather.
&&
.MARINE...
No changes made at this point to the marine hazards. East to
northeast winds and waves are increasing early this morning and
this will continue through today. The strongest winds are
expected during late this afternoon and evening before
gradually subsiding overnight. Still expecting storm force
winds on the lower Delaware Bay and the NJ/DE Atlantic coastal
waters. For the upper Delaware Bay, expect gale conditions.
Dangerous seas up to 20 feet are expected. Periods of rain and
sea spray restricting visibility at times, especially this
afternoon into Monday.
Outlook...
Monday night through Thursday...Conditions will begin to
improve as the storm weakens and begins to move away. However,
gale force winds may linger through Tuesday and elevated seas
above 5 feet may linger through Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
We`ll continue with the Coastal Flood Advisories for the next
tide cycle before the larger event for Sunday. The latest
numbers for the upcoming tide were similar to previous fcst, so
saw no need for any major changes. Either low-end minor tidal
flooding or just below that is expected this evening and into
the overnight.
Meanwhile, there is an increasing risk of moderate to major
coastal flooding impacts beginning Sunday through Monday as a
coastal storm impacts the region. Guidance still varies in
potential outcomes of this storm with regard to severity of
coastal flood impacts locally, however we remain very concerned
about the potential for significant impacts from this storm
along our coasts. At this time, the greatest threat of impacts
are anticipated to occur along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey
and Delaware, and Delaware Bay. A Coastal Flood Warning remains
in effect for Sunday through Monday.
Severe beach erosion and dune breaching are quite possible
along the entire New Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches due
to the very high surf conditions that are expected. Interests
along the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, back bays, and tidal
waterways should remain alert for forecast updates regarding
this significant coastal flood event.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Monday for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT
     Monday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     NJZ021>025.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for NJZ012>014-020>027.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     NJZ013-020-022-027.
     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday
     for NJZ014-023>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Monday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT
     Monday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     DEZ002>004.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for DEZ002>004.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     DEZ003.
     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday
     for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ430.
     Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/RCM
MARINE...AKL/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion