Alliance, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

659
FXUS62 KMHX 042327
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
727 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide quiet weather through the end of the
week with a gradual warming trend. A cold front will move
through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in
late weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...A broken line of showers and
thunderstorms along a prefrontal trough has continued to advance
eastward across central NC over the next couple of hours.
Shower/thunderstorm activity has started to wane over the past
hour or so with the loss of diurnal heating, and latest high-res
guidance continues to indicate this band will dissipate before
reaching the forecast area. Thus, have continued to carry dry
forecast for tonight. Trends will continue to be monitored over
the next few hours should this band persist farther east than
anticipated.
Previous Discussion...The deep upper low over the Great Lakes
and southern Canada continues to provide broad troughing across
the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains
dominant, and fairly dry low and mid levels are keeping skies
mostly clear outside of some sparse diurnal cu. A cold front
will approach the area from the west tonight, but it will fizzle
before reaching the FA, so we`ll remain dry overnight. Lows
will be more mild tonight with temps forecast to dip to the
mid-60s across the coastal plain and low-70s at the beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY /...
As of 1:20 PM Thursday...The warming trend persists tomorrow
with increasing heights in the mid- levels. Temps are forecast
to reach the low-90s across the coastal plain and low-80s at the
beaches. Similarly to today, clouds will be hard to come by
outside of some diurnal cu. Winds will be light and back from SW
to SE through the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Thu...
Key Messages
- Temperatures gradually warming into Saturday
- Cooler and unsettled late this weekend into early next week
Saturday through Wednesday...Complex low pressure system will
continue to push through Canada, while upper trough pivots
through the eastern US, and cold front approaches from the west.
The front will move through Saturday night into early Sunday.
Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will allow for temps
to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s along the
coast. Isolated showers and storms will be possible Sat night.
High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and early next
week. Weak wedge looks to set up behind the front into early
next week, as front lingers offshore (waves developing along
it) and potential coastal troughing, which would give way to NE
flow, more clouds than sun and increased shower chances...with
best chances along the coast. High temps will fall back into the
upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70 deg.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Saturday/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...VFR conditions present at all terminals
this evening with clear/mostly clear skies and light southerly
winds. Winds will calm further during the overnight hours which,
when coupled with clear skies, may support some patchy fog early
tomorrow morning. Fog signal is similar to the past couple of
nights, albeit with slightly more moisture available tonight.
Guidance and forecast soundings suggest that fog potential will
be more confined to the coastal terminals (EWN/OAJ) tonight,
with OAJ having the best chances. Have continued to carry a
mention of MVFR visibilities for OAJ for a couple of hours early
tomorrow morning, but confidence in fog remains low. Thus, have
opted against including any other fog mentions in the TAFs for
this cycle. Once any patchy fog clears after sunrise,
conditions will be VFR SKC with light winds backing from SW to
SSE.
LONG TERM /Friday afternoon through Monday/...
As of 215 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through Saturday.
While probs remains low, there will be potential for patchy
sub- VFR fog and/or stratus each morning. A cold front will move
through Saturday night and early Sunday. Widespread sub-VFR
cigs may develop behind the front Sunday, potentially lingering
into Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 1:25 PM Thursday...A mid-level disturbance will move through
later today and generate a small bump in winds, most notable across
the northern waters and Albemarle Sound, where SE winds will
increase from 5-10 kt to 15-20 kt. This will be short-lived,
however, with winds dialing back to 10 kt area wide as they veer
to the SW overnight. Winds will be light and variable tomorrow
morning but will become SE at 10-15 kt by late tomorrow
afternoon. Seas will be 2-4 ft through late tonight and 2-3 ft
thereafter with a period of 7-8 seconds.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 215 AM Thu...
Key Messages:
- SCA conditions likely to develop early next week
S-SW winds 5-15 kt Fri and Sat as a cold front approaches from
the west. The cold front will move through the waters Saturday
night and early Sunday. Moderate NNE flow will develop behind
the front Sunday 10-15 kt, increasing to 15-25 kt Monday. Seas
will remain at 2-4 ft into the weekend, building to 4-7 ft
Monday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/ZC
MARINE...CQD/OJC

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion