Alpine, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

275
FXUS64 KLZK 230016
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
716 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
-Strong to severe storms with multiple rounds posing a flash flood
 threat will be possible across central to northern Arkansas
 overnight through Monday morning.
-Areas of rainy conditions continuing through mid-week, with more
 widespread rains Tuesday into Wednesday.
-Cooling temperatures to at or below normal levels going into late
 this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Training showers and storms across portions of western Arkansas
(currently the Crawford, Sebastian, Franklin, Logan and Johnson
County area) will pose a flash flood threat as cells continue to
form along a boundary that is in a favorable area for development
due to a strengthening LLJ across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Stronger storms will additionally pose a strong to
severe wind and small hail threat. CAM`s continue to struggle with
storm evolution/maintenance going into the morning hours, but
general thinking is showers and storms will continue to push
eastward across Arkansas through daybreak. At that point, more
uncertainty in storm evolution exists heading into the afternoon
hours, where CAM`s generally show a downward trend in activity,
but cannot rule out activity extending into portions of central to
southern Arkansas later today. Temperatures are expected to
generally cool back towards normal levels (low to mid-80s for
central Arkansas) through early week.
Heading into the middle of the week, a mid-level disturbance
moving across the Central Plains will aid in strengthening low
pressure across that general region, with a cold front moving
across Arkansas Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring the next
round of widespread rains to the region and, depending on timing,
could result in the opportunity for strong to severe storms along
and ahead of the front. Post front, much cooler temperatures are
expected to settle into the region, where highs in the 70s and 80s
will continue through the end of the week.
Quieter weather is anticipated going through this weekend and into
next week as high pressure builds across the region, resulting in
slight warming temperatures back towards normal levels.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conds are expected at most TAF sites overnight. The exception
to this is at KHRO and KBPK where MVFR conds are anticipated
near/after 06z with the arrival of SHRA/TSRA. SHRA are possible as
far S as Cntrl sites overnight but should prevail VFR conds.
Additional SHRA/TSRA will push into NW AR on Tues afternoon. This
activity will move SE with time, affecting other locations just
outside the TAF window. Winds on Tues should be S/SW at around
10-15 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  83  67  82 /  70  80  90  70
Camden AR         69  91  70  81 /  30  30  50  90
Harrison AR       65  76  64  75 /  50  90  90  50
Hot Springs AR    68  87  68  81 /  40  50  80  80
Little Rock   AR  71  87  71  82 /  50  50  80  80
Monticello AR     71  93  73  84 /  30  20  40  90
Mount Ida AR      68  87  68  81 /  30  50  90  70
Mountain Home AR  66  78  65  78 /  50  90  90  50
Newport AR        69  83  69  81 /  70  70  90  70
Pine Bluff AR     69  90  70  81 /  40  30  60  90
Russellville AR   69  86  69  82 /  50  70  90  60
Searcy AR         68  86  69  82 /  60  70  90  80
Stuttgart AR      70  87  71  81 /  50  50  70  80
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon
for ARZ004>007-014>016-024-031>033-039-042>045-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...70

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion