Alton, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

724
FXUS63 KGID 072033
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
333 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-A few thunderstorms overnight tonight (20-35% primarily north central
 Kansas and southeastern Nebraska) and Monday (20%) is
 possible, though most areas should remain dry.
- Temperatures warm back into the 80s Tuesday through the end of the
  week.
- Scattered storm chances return a few days this week including Tuesday
  night (20% for far southwestern areas), Wednesday night (20-
  30%), Friday night (10-20%) and Saturday night (20-30%). The
  severe potential remains uncertain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Tonight and Monday...
Weak ridging residing in the mid-to-upper level flow this afternoon
is expected to be interrupted by an embedded shortwave trough Monday.
This disturbance presently resides over the Rockies and has helped
materialize a few showers/storms this afternoon across the upper
plains. These storms should fizzle out before reaching central NE/KS
later this evening, however, precipitation chances can not be fully
ruled out overnight tonight or Monday evening.
This wave interacting with a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet
could stir up a few more additional storms/showers across primarly
our Kansas and southeastern Nebraska areas starting between
midnight and 3AM tonight. A limited southeastern portion of the area
could still see a shower or two lingering through parts of the
morning. The potential for an isolated storm or two returning in the
evening is possible, though both the 18z HRRR and NAMNEST have walked
back the coverage some. If a storm develops, it will likely develop
just northwest of the area across the sandhills, approaching the area
from the northwest. The potential for severe weather is low at this
time, though a strong storm can`t be completely overlooked given
some modeled 2.5-3k of MUCAPE Monday afternoon and evening.
Besides the precipitation chances tonight and Monday, winds will be
expected to remain out of the south, blowing from 10-15 MPH with
occasional gusts as high as 25 MPH this evening and up to 30MPH Monday
afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon are on track to top out in the
mid 70s to lower 80s, generally a few degrees warmer than the
previous day. Some clouds sliding in from the southwest through the
night a part of the passing disturbance, may influence temperatures
to a degree Monday. The broad southerly warm air advecting flow
should still help to keep highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in the
afternoon, generally warmest towards the west where there is less
cloud coverage and for areas that should be the first to clear.
Tuesday amd Wednesday...
Increasing temperatures Tuesday from clearing skies and a steady
southerly surface flow, will help lift highs back into the long
forgotten low to mid 80s. The ridging pattern in the upper levels
should restrengthen, becoming squeezed between eastern U.S. troughing
and a north pacific centered upper level low.
Beyond a low end storm chance across a few southwestern areas
Tuesday night (up to 20% chances), the next area-wide precipitation
chance will come Wednesday evening to night (25-35% chance). Upper-
level height falls with some mid-level vorticity advection from the
approach of the upstream uper-level low, should bring some assent into
the region. A few scattered storms may be able to develop near to
just west of the area, moving in during the evening. A few models
event point towards a developing MCS that could signify a more
organized and potentially stronger storm. Discrepancies with model
timing of the storm onset limits overall confidence and makes it
hard to assess the severe potential at this time.
Thursday and Beyond...
The Near to just above average temperatures are expected to remain
through the end of the week with highs steadily in the 80s. The
previously mentioned northwest upper-level system should continue to
swing into the Central and Northern Plains Friday through the
weekend, providing regional assent and even more storms chances.
Thunderstorm chances return virtually each afternoon to night Friday
through next Sunday. This period is too far out to be able to narrow
down any specifics at this time as several factors could influence
when and where the best chances end up. The overall ensemble signal
shows a slightly more active weekend given the synoptic setup.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions expected to retain across the next at least 24
hours. A few clouds will build in overnight, with ceilings
falling no lower than 6kft. Any shower chances should stay south
and east of both terminals (only a 20% chance). Winds will
remain out of the south, blowing between 10-15 MPH and gusting
as high as 20-25 MPH this evening and again Monday afternoon.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion