Altoona Lake 883 Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

615
FXUS63 KMPX 130004
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
704 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers possible this evening & overnight.
- Seasonable temperatures to start the week (60s & 50s)
- A semi-active, warmer pattern sets up with additional rain chances
  through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Scattered light showers are present across central & southern MN
this afternoon. Precipitation has been light so far, but hi-res
guidance supports an uptick in development & rainfall rates this
evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Southeast winds will
gusts up to 35 mph continue through the evening hours before
shifting to the northwest after the FROPA. High temperatures will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s but the gusty winds still make
it feel Fall-like. Latest HRRR develops additional showers along the
front after 00z in W MN. These will move through the metro into the
metro around 03z and W WI shortly after. The signal for QPF hasn`t
been all too impressive - still 0.10" to 0.25" and it will not be
widespread due to the scattered coverage of the precip. Thunder
chances are low, but not non-zero so a rogue rumble isn`t out of the
realm of possibility. Rain will abruptly end after the frontal
passage & winds turn to the NW, ushering in cooler & drier
airmass to start the week. Overnight lows will bottom out in the
40s.
Another taste of Fall is on tap for the start of the week. High
temperatures will range in the 50s and lower 60s Monday & Tuesday,
with Tuesday being the coldest day of the week. The surface high
will begin to shift toward the Great Lakes and E US and this will
usher in a wave of warm air advection precip chances on Wednesday
across S MN. Turning upstream, an upper-level trough will dig in
over the West Coast that will promote southwesterly flow over the
Rockies & Plains. That southerly low level flow will allow our
temperatures to warm for the second half of the week with highs
returning to the 70s on Thursday. Guidance eventually ejects the
western trough into the Central & Northern Plains. The ECMWF brings
a surface low through the the Dakotas and into NW MN by Friday
morning. This will bring additional showers & thunderstorms with the
accompanying surface cold front. Models diverge on how they handle t
his feature with varying difference in placement & timing for next
weekend. It will usher in cooler temperatures that will only be a
few degrees above normal as no significant stretch of
meaningful colder air is on the horizon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Cold front moving into western MN is more or less on schedule
with the current TAFs. We have two areas of rain with this
front, the first is along/east of I-35 and this is a zone of
warm advective precip in the LLJ that at this point will impact
the WI terminals. The second area of rain is with the front
itself and we`ve seen this rain expand quite a bit in the past
hour. Only change from the going TAFs was to slow down the rains
departure associated with the cold front by an hour or two from
the going TAFs. This second area of rain may bring some brief
MVFR cigs, but other than that, VFR conditions are expected to
dominate this period. Skies will clear our late tonight, with
maybe a FEW cu field being possible on Monday, with high clouds
on the increase again from the southwest by the end of the
period.
KMSP...MSP is is a lull right now, but a more or less continuous
light to moderate rain is expected between 2z and 5z. This is
when 2k-3k foot cigs will be possible as well.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind NE 5-10kts.
WED...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...Chance -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion