Alturas, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

691
FXUS62 KTBW 251632
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1232 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A weak pressure gradient both at the surface and aloft
will result in generally mesoscale and diurnally driven convection
this afternoon with the inland advancing sea breeze being the
biggest contributor to storm development. Away from storms, light
and variable winds will prevail before turning westward behind the
passing sea breeze. Inland convection will diminish by around sunset
this evening with a few storms possible over the coastal waters
overnight.
A slowing frontal boundary associated with an upper level trof
moving across Tennessee will provide a focus for more widespread
showers and thunderstorms across north and central Florida through
much of the day Friday. The boundary will stall north of the area
so no change in airmass is expected, but lingering moisture from
the boundary will keep precipitation chances elevated through
Saturday evening.
Jones
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Light winds will turn northerly Sunday and Monday as
currently designated tropical disturbance 94L will lift north
through the northern Bahamas off the east Florida coast. While the
highest precipitation chances with this disturbance will be over the
east coast and adjacent coastal waters, scattered showers will work
into the region on the outer fringes of this low with PoPs gradually
decreasing closer to the west coast and offshore. 94L will continue
north into the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday maintaining northerly
flow at the surface. Some drier mid level air filtering in on the
northwest side of the tropical disturbance will put an upper limit
on daily convection through the middle of the week.
Jones
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move into the
coastal waters from this afternoon through Friday in response to an
approaching cold front that will stall north of the region. Away
from storms, light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through
Friday night. Winds turn parallel to the coast Saturday through the
middle of next week as tropical disturbance 94L moves north up the
southeastern U.S. coast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along
and ahead of an advancing sea breeze this afternoon. Away from
storms, light westerly winds will prevail today and tonight. A
slowing frontal boundary will approach the region Friday resulting
in above normal precipitation chances. Winds will turn northerly
Saturday through the middle of next week as tropical disturbance 94L
moves up the southeastern U.S. coast. Minimum RH values will range
from 55-70% through early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  90  78  90 /  20  40  30  50
FMY  76  91  75  90 /  20  30  10  40
GIF  75  92  75  92 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  76  89  75  88 /  20  30  30  50
BKV  72  90  71  89 /  20  50  40  60
SPG  78  87  77  87 /  20  40  30  50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion