Amber, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

108
FXUS61 KBGM 250504
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
104 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal system sweeping through the region will bring periods
of rain to Central NY and Northeast PA through Thursday evening.
High pressure will return partly to mostly sunny conditions
this weekend. Next week, high pressure will settle overhead with
dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Periods of heavy rain will impact the region today. Forecast
soundings are indicating CAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg across the
southern Catskills and Poconos, with the highest instability
likely staying off to our southeast along the Mid Atlantic
Coast. The severe threat will be low, but the sounding profiles
are quite moist. Models are showing anomalous PWATs at around
1.75". The dry antecedent conditions should prevent us from
having any flooding issues, even with a widespread 1 to 2 inches
of rain and localized higher amounts. River and smaller stream
response will be slow to this rainfall, but if some training
occurs, can`t rule out some minor issues in poor drainage areas
and urban ponding in common low lying areas.
Upper trough will push into western NY Friday morning. Although
broad scale synoptic drying appears to take shape in the models,
can`t rule out an isolated shower on Friday with the upper
trough and NW Flow across the Great Lakes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front and upper trough exit the region by early Saturday
morning. High pressure builds in Saturday with dry and warm
conditions. NBM is bring some low chance PoPs in across NE PA,
but these are likely well overdone. For now, going to leave NBM
PoPs as is for now, as model guidance is still unsure how far
north cut off upper low will track. Consensus at this time has
it staying well south of the region, so if this trend continues
then the rain chances will be lowered for this weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The bulk of ensemble data shows high pressure building into the
region with a fairly quiet period through next week. Above
normal temperatures and dry conditions should persist through at
least mid week. At this time, models are keeping tropical systems
moving through the Western Atlantic and staying well away from
the mainland U.S. Model consensus is for ridging over the
northeast with troughing over the Canadian Maritimes. This
pattern should favor keeping these tropical systems well out to
sea. Overall confidence in this period is still low and at the
very least we`ll have to be closely monitoring the track of
tropical moisture plumes extending northward from these systems.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
All terminals will likely fall to at least IFR with periods of
rain. Model guidance favors LIFR ceilings as well at most
terminals early this morning. There will be a break in shower
activity early this morning, but it will be brief and ceiling
restrictions will remain in place through the TAF period.
Outlook...
Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/MPK
NEAR TERM...JAB/MPK
SHORT TERM...JAB/MPK
LONG TERM...MPK/MWG
AVIATION...BTL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion