Ambierville, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

109
FXUS61 KBGM 231059
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
659 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will become nearly stationary across the
region through Wednesday then push northward as a warm front
Thursday. High pressure will then build into the region behind
the front by the weekend. &&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Several areas of showers will push northeast through the region
today with the approach of a frontal boundary. Model soundings
do show some very low CAPE values of 500 J/KG or less. This is
enough to mention thunder but not enough for any strong to
severe thunderstorms. These showers will bring some rain of
around a half inch but it`s not going to cut the rainfall
deficit much. Highs today generally in the 70s` to around 80
with the coolest values where the most rain falls. This frontal
boundary looks to shift south of the region a bit tonight and
Wednesday lowering the coverage of showers. Temperatures should
not fall much tonight only to around 60 with clouds rising back
well into the 70`s Wednesday.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The front then shifts back north as a warm front Wednesday night
and Thursday. Moisture advection with the warm front should be
lifted to produce widespread showers Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts look a bit higher ( an inch
or so) with this round but not enough to cause any flooding
issues. Temperatures do trend a bit warmer Wednesday night with
a weak LLJ moving over us as well. Showers will keep highs in
the 70`s again on Thursday. While the higher coverage area of
showers should shift east by Thursday night enough clouds should
result in another warm night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The front moves east of the region for Friday through the
weekend with high pressure slowly building into the region.
Timing of when the residual clouds and showers finally exit the
region is still somewhat uncertain so the shower chance carries
into Friday.With sunshine returning highs get well into the 70`s
with 40`s and 50`s for lows.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A somewhat low confidence forecast this morning as guidance has
been showing much lower ceilings and vis compared to
observations. ELM/BGM/RME may see some TEMPO IFR ceilings
through mid morning with rain showers passing overhead and cool
morning temps. Rain should stop at SYR & RME by mid morning,
with ELM & ITH seeing showers move out by early afternoon. BGM
and AVP should see showers through the evening hours as a
shortwave trough moves into the Mid-Atlantic. Tonight, a weak
high builds in bringing light to calm winds at and just above
the surface. This should allow fog to develop across the area
but confidence was not high enough at this time to blanket every
terminal with IFR restrictions through the night. Confidence is
high enough however for BGM/ELM/ITH to see fog settle in.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Lingering clouds with MVFR ceilings possible.
Thursday...A chance for scattered showers and associated
restrictions.
Friday through Saturday...Generally VFR, but still a chance for
some showers.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion