Amburgey Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

707
FXUS63 KJKL 101130 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
730 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry and seasonable autumn weather pattern with mostly sunny
  days and mainly clear nights will continue through the weekend
  and into next week.
- Temperatures will slowly warm back to slightly above normal by
  early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure dominating the weather over
the Ohio Valley and Kentucky. This has led to another night of
clear skies with decent radiational cooling for the JKL CWA. As a
result, a moderate ridge to valley temperature difference was
noted through the night along with the development of fog in the
river valleys - now locally dense. Currently, temperatures range
from the upper 40s on the hills to near 40 degrees in the most
sheltered, low spots. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds,
dewpoints are generally in the upper 30s north to the low and mid
40s south.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict some weak 5h ridging over Kentucky today
in the wake of some weakness dropping southeast of the area.
However, later tonight a compact and fairly deep trough will brush
into the northern Ohio Valley sending some weak height falls to
northern parts of the state as it passes. Still most of the mid-
level energy of this feature will stay north of the Ohio River. By
the end of the period, troughing deepening to the southeast will
only serve to build heights of ridging over Texas stretching into
Kentucky from the west - keeping the mid-levels quiet over this
part of the state into the weekend. The models` still small spread
- supported the NBM as the starting point of the grids with
minimal adjustments needed - mainly just for some terrain driven
enhancement to the hourly temperatures tonight.
Sensible weather features seasonably cool and dry conditions
heading into the first part of the weekend with plenty of
sunshine today thanks to the nearby area of high pressure. More
clouds are anticipated for Saturday as a dry front dissipates over
the area. Valley fog can be anticipated late at night and early
each morning along with a modest ridge to valley temperature
differences nightly. Slightly milder conditions at night will keep
frost from being a concern even in the more sheltered valleys.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures tonight along
with extra drying applied to the dewpoints and RH each afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split
to the temperatures each night well into the next week, along
with a touch of extra drying each afternoon from the mix down of
lower dewpoints from aloft. PoPs are still looking quite limited
during the latter part of the weekend and into the next week.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The global ensemble model system is in overall good agreement in
a significant coastal storm impacting the Mid-Atlantic this
weekend, with upper ridging extending north over the central part
of the country from a closed high in the vicinity of Texas
thereafter. This leaves our region in primarily dry northwesterly
flow aloft this weekend through the middle of next week. It
should be noted that the operational GFS model continues to be a
notable outlier in bringing an active west-northwesterly jet
stream with return southwesterly surface flow and much milder and
wetter conditions at the end of the period (i.e., the middle of
next week).
Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected through the duration of
the extended from Saturday through Wednesday night, with gradually
warming highs through the 70s and lows gradually warming through the
40s and lower 50s each successive night. Some uncertainties begin to
creep into the temperature forecast as the NBM probabilistic
envelope shows an inflection point back downward beginning around
Wednesday of next week, which seems to be indicative of a dry cold
frontal passage around that time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites at 12Z as high
pressure remains firmly in control of our weather. VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period - outside of limited fog in
the sheltered river valleys at night. Winds will be light and
variable through morning then gradually veer to a southerly
direction at less than 5 kts by afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion