Amherst Junction, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

194
FXUS63 KGRB 100906
AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
406 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers gradually taper off today.
- Areas of fog, locally dense, possible the next couple nights.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive for the start of
  the weekend, but dry weather returns Saturday night and Sunday.
- Above normal temperatures from Friday through next Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A cold front stretched from SW MN to NW WI to the western U.P.
early this morning. Ahead of the front, showers were ongoing
across GRB CWA, in response to short-wave energy and PWATs of
1-1.3 inches. Widespread low stratus and fog had formed along and
behind the front, including in far NC WI.
Initial negatively-tilted short-wave over GRB CWA will bring
showers before departing early this morning. A positively-tilted
short-wave will drift across the forecast area for the rest of the
day, as the weakening cold front sags slowly southeast across the
forecast area. This will bring additional isolated to scattered
showers into the afternoon. Little instability is expected, so
have pulled any mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast. With
abundant cloud cover anticipated through the day, have lowered
high temperatures into the middle 60s to lower 70s for today.
High pressure builds into the region tonight and lingers until
Friday, when it begins to shift northeast. The surface ridge will
reside over the northwest half of the forecast area late tonight,
and this will be an area of concern for possible dense fog
development, especially in the climatologically favored
Wisconsin River Valley. A repeat performance for fog, possibly
dense is anticipated over northern WI Thursday night.
The high pressure system will edge east Friday night into
Saturday, allowing the front to return as a warm front. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as this occurs.
The best chance will be across C/EC WI Friday night, as a short-
wave trough tracks through the region. Additional convection could
occur in our southwest counties Saturday afternoon as surface
based instability develops near the warm front. Dry weather
should return late in the weekend as strong ridging aloft builds
across the western Great Lakes. The chance of showers and storms
returns as the upper ridge shifts east next week and southwest
flow brings a more moist and unstable air mass and periodic short-
wave energy to the western Great Lakes. Suspect that the current
low-end blended model pops will come up a bit with subsequent
forecasts.
Temperatures will remain close to normal through Thursday, then
rise above normal from Friday through next Wednesday, with highs
reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Scattered shower activity with spotty IFR cigs persist near RHI,
though thunder chances have dropped off enough to remove from the
TAF. Light showers have made it down to the central Wisconsin
sites overnight, though thunder chances remain sub-30. MVFR/IFR
cigs will follow shortly behind the rain for AUW and CWA. An
isolated shower or two may persist through Wednesday afternoon,
although will be confined mainly to central Wisconsin. Have thus
omitted any precip from the eastern TAF sites.
Light winds and remnant moisture will result in potential for fog
development, locally dense, across north-central Wisconsin late
tonight into Wednesday morning. IFR to LIFR vsbys will be possible
near RHI if dense fog develops. Fog should then scatter out by
daybreak, though low IFR stratus may linger over the north through
Wednesday night.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Goodin

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion