Ammons Pond North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

924
FXUS62 KRAH 141712
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
110 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build from the OH and TN Valleys to the southern
Appalachians. A dry, backdoor cold front will move south across the
region Wednesday evening, followed by Canadian high pressure that
will build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Tuesday...
Aloft, the closed mid-level low off the mid-Atlantic coast should
continue to progress ewd over the Atlantic through tonight, with the
sub-tropical ridge gradually building in from the west. Similarly at
the surface, the closed low off the NC coast will continue ewd out
over the Atlantic through tonight, with high pressure building in
from the NW in its wake. Nly flow will prevail. Dry weather is
expected to prevail. While the wrn Piedmont may remain sunny to
mostly sunny today, cloud cover  increase across the rest of the
area through the early afternoon. Cloud cover should decrease as the
low moves away from the area late this aft/evening, becoming mostly
clear by tonight. Intermittent wind gusts into the teens are
expected today, mainly in the east, tapering off after sunset. With
the lingering cloud cover in the east today, expect a similar
temperature gradient from W-E as yesterday, with highs ranging from
mid/upper 70s west to mid/upper 60s east. Lows tonight should again
be in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Tuesday...
Low pressure will be over eastern Canada Wednesday morning, with a
cold front extending to the west through New England, Pennsylvania,
and into the central Plains. The cold front will move southeast
during the day, paralleling the I-85 corridor by sunset Wednesday.
There will be very little moisture along the front, barely enough to
produce any clouds, let alone any precipitation. With mostly sunny
skies across the entire area, Wednesday`s high temperatures should
be more uniform than today`s high temperatures, with all locations
in the 70s. Temperatures will be slightly colder Wednesday night
behind the front, although it will take until Thursday for a more
noticeable change in temperatures. Wednesday night`s lows will range
from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM Tuesday...
* Next chance of rain will be Sunday into Monday associated with a
  cold frontal passage.
* Below average temperatures will warm to above normal over the
  weekend, dropping back to near normal to start the work week.
After the backdoor cold front passes through the region on
Wednesday, high pressure will build over the region. This will allow
dry and mostly sunny conditions to prevail Thursday through
Saturday. Thursday should be the coldest day of the period, with
highs expected in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows dipping into the
upper 30s to low 40s as good radiational cooling is expected
overnight. Friday should have similar high temperatures as the high
pressure system moves through the region, with lows increasing
slightly into the 40s. By Saturday, maximum temperatures should be
in the 70s regionwide, with lows in the low-to-mid 50s, perhaps the
upper 40s in the coolest spots.
A cold front is expected to approach and push through the region
Sunday into Monday. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible
with the fropa. The best forcing looks to be to our north and less
than 500 J/kg of CAPE is expected, so stronger storms do not look to
be likely. Additionally, ensemble means are generally showing less
than 0.25 inch of rain from this system across the area, with the
90th percentiles also only showing around 0.5-0.75 inch. Sunday`s
temperatures look to have highs in the mid-to-upper 70s before the
front moves through, with lows dipping into the upper 40s to mid
50s. After the front moves through, high pressure should build back
into the region, bringing cool and dry conditions to start the work
week.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 PM Tuesday...
TAF period: Very high confidence that INT/GSO will remain VFR
through the next 24 hours, with slightly less confidence that
RDU/FAY will also remain VFR through the next 24 hours. RWI could
begin with some MVFR ceilings, but after a brief time, any ceilings
should lift to VFR heights. As low pressure moves offshore, cloud
cover will continue to diminish from west to east. There is enough
of a pressure gradient to cause gusts at RDU/RWI this afternoon, but
the gradient is only strong enough to cause occasional gusts as
INT/GSO/FAY. The gusts should come to an end around sunset tonight
with both the loss of daytime heating and the low departing. With a
low level inversion in place, think that there will be some weak low-
level wind shear, possibly 30 knots at 2000 ft, especially farther
to the east, but these values will not be strong enough to warrant a
mention in the TAFs. Although the wind will pick up again after
sunrise on Wednesday, wind gusts do not appear to be strong enough
to warrant an additional line at this time.
Outlook: A cold front will move through late Wednesday, but it
should result in few clouds and no precipitation. The next chance of
rain will approach INT/GSO Sunday afternoon.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Green

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion