754 FXUS64 KMEG 050827 AAA AFDMEGArea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the Midsouth late early this evening through overnight tonight. Severe thunderstorms will be possible, particularly this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.
- There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms near the Tennessee River. Over the remainder of the Midsouth, a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms in place, corresponding with a more isolated coverage of severe thunderstorms.
- Following storms tonight and a cold frontal passage tonight, a significant cooldown is in store the weekend. Daytime highs in the 70s and 80s are forecast, accompanied by low humidity.
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.DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Welcomed rainfall is on the way beginning late Friday afternoon into Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. Unfortunately, prior to this, return flow and efficient heating will allow temperatures to creep into the mid to upper 90s. The return flow will allow for strong moisture transport and allow dewpoints to creep into the 60s, with some areas in north Mississippi reaching or exceeding 70 degrees. This strong moisture combined with lift from the approaching frontal boundary does bring a looming severe weather threat. While it remains
NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion