410 FXUS66 KSGX 261024 AFDSGXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 324 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS... High temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees below average for today will warm slightly for Saturday through Monday. There is a slight chance of showers today along with a slight chance of thunderstorms for this afternoon for the mountains and deserts. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on Saturday for the mountains and deserts and expand to the inland valleys with chances for measurable rainfall of 35 to 45 percent during the afternoon. Tuesday will be cooler with stronger onshore flow and gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts, then gradually warmer for the rest of the week with high temperatures next Thursday still a few degrees below average.
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.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... A closed low pressure system will move into southern California today, linger along the southern California border with northern Baja on Saturday, the weaken and move to the east on Sunday. Cooling will continue today with high temperatures for inland areas of 5 to 10 degrees below average and locally 10 to 15 degrees below average for the inland valleys onto the lower coastal mountain slopes. Highs today will range from around 70 near the coast to to the mid 70s to lower 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower 90s for the lower deserts. The lower deserts will cool a few more degrees on Saturday with the coast and valleys warming slightly. Most areas will be a degree or two warmer on Sunday.
The marine layer has deepened to around 4500 feet and continues to deepen with satellite imagery showing coastal low clouds extending well inland and onto the coastal slopes of the mountains. There will patchy drizzle and some light showers for this morning for coastal areas into some of the valleys.
As the center of upper level low pressure moves into the eastern deserts of southern California for this afternoon. There is a 15 to 25 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and deserts for this afternoon as moisture and instability spreads into the area from the north.
The center of low pressure will move to near a position along the border of southern California and northern Baja on Saturday with moisture spreading into the area from the east. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains, deserts, and valleys. The greatest chances are for the mountains and deserts of 35 to 45 percent during the afternoon. There will be peak hourly rainfall of around one inch with isolated flash flooding possible for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys.
The low pressure system will weaken and move east on Sunday with a 10 to 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and deserts on Sunday afternoon from lingering moisture and instability.
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.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)... Monday will be dry and slightly warmer, then cooler on Tuesday with stronger onshore flow. High temperatures on Tuesday will mostly be 5 to 10 degrees below average for inland areas to locally 10 to 15 degrees below average for the higher elevations of the mountains. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from around 70 near the coast to the mid 70s to lower 80s for the Inland Empire with around 90 for the lower deserts. This will be followed by slow warming through the rest of the week with high temperatures on Thursday still a few degrees below average for inland areas.
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.AVIATION... 260930Z....Coasts/Valleys/Foothills...Low clouds based at 2000-3000 feet MSL have filled the coastal basin up into foothills with tops to 4500 feet. Vis reduced in foothills. Patchy -DZ is expected, most likely near the coast, through 17Z. This would intermittently reduce cigs/vis. FG and terrain obscured in foothills. Only partial, random, and intermittent scatter out is expected for anywhere in the coastal basin today, with bases around 2500-3500 feet MSL. BKN-OVC conditions will develop across the coastal basin into foothills again tonight after 05Z into Saturday morning.
Mountains/Deserts...Brisk westerly winds 25-35 kts through mountain passes and desert slopes until 13Z, gradually decreasing thereafter. 20% chance of TSRA 19-01Z across mountains and high desert. Bases around 10000 feet MSL and storm tops to 30K feet.
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.MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.
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.BEACHES... South swell from Hurricane Narda will arrive this weekend. Swell of 4-5 feet with a period of 12-14 seconds will produce elevated surf and a high rip current risk Sunday through Tuesday, especially for south facing beaches, where sets could reach 7 feet.
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.SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
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.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None.
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PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM
NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion