Aneth, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

486
FXUS65 KGJT 050609
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1209 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring some heavy
  rain, gusty winds, and lightning across the region this
  afternoon and evening. This trend continues into the weekend.
- Burn scar flash flooding will be possible through the weekend
  if any of the stronger cells with heavy rain move over more
  recent burn scars.
- Temperatures will remain around climatology before a warmup
  starts on Monday onwards.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
PWATs have increased to 0.69 inches at the Grand Junction WFO
this afternoon and this is noticeable with the increase in
convection across the region. Weak rotation just to our west
with an embedded shortwave is the impetus for this convection.
Some heavy rain is falling under the stronger cells with plenty
of cloud-to-ground lightning also detected. The main concern
with any of this convection will be those heavy rainers moving
over recent burn scars and the flash flooding threat. This
threat will persist as long as the increased moisture remains in
the atmosphere and convection continues. Convection will die
down after sunset but some showers, maybe a few rumbles of
thunder, will persist overnight.
More of the same is expected tomorrow with convection firing off
the higher terrain very similar to today. The NAMNEST and HRRR
are favoring southern portions of the CWA tomorrow afternoon but
with plenty of available moisture and CAPE values mostly between
600 to 800 J/kg, convection will be possible across the entire
CWA. Again, like today, main concerns will be some heavy
rainers, lightning, and a few gusty outflow winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Monsoonal moisture will be well established over the region on
Saturday, allowing for PWAT anomalies to peak around 150-175% of
normal. As such, widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to be
in the forecast on Saturday. The precipitation activity will be
supported by a shortwave moving across the region through early
Sunday. The support from the shortwave may increase the chances of
heavier rainfall, which could raise flash flooding concerns over the
new burn scars in the region. Relatively drier air in the northern
most part of the region keeps PoPs lower there, and increases the
chances of gusty outflow winds with storms. PoPs are expected to
stay elevated through the night with the shortwave passage before
Sunday`s afternoon convection begins. On Sunday, moisture
remains but begins to make its way out of the area resulting in
mostly terrain driven convection from the decrease in moisture
and loss of upper-level support. PWAT anomalies fall closer to
normal on Monday, leading to decreased coverage of terrain based
convection through the early workweek. Increased cloud cover
should keep daytime high temperatures down to 5 degrees below
normal through the weekend, but the decrease in moisture next
week should increase highs to near or just above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Light rain showers persist across southeastern Utah and
southwestern Colorado with an occasional embedded thunderstorm.
These will diminish through the overnight as they move up into
central colorado. Showers and thunderstorms will increase again
after 14Z, becoming scattered to widespread across the region
along and south of the I-70 corridor between 18Z and 00Z,
thereafter dying down to the southeast through the evening.
Threats from these storms will be lightning and heavy rain along
with gusty winds. Expect brief periods of MVFR conditions below
ILS breakpoints along and south of the I-70 corridor at mountain
TAF sites.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...DB

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion