Angel Fire New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

817
FXUS65 KABQ 101149 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
- A one-two punch of moisture associated with the remnants of
  Tropical Storm Priscilla and eventually Tropical Storm Raymond
  will bring daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and
  thunderstorms, mainly along and west of the central mountain
  chain, into the middle of next week.
- Marginal to Slight risks of excessive rainfall, mainly over
  portions of western NM, will be present each day through the
  weekend into early next week. A Flood Watch is in effect for
  Farmington and the Four Corners area for Friday into Saturday.
- Cooler temperatures across the area Monday behind a back-door
  cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 108 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
A batch of light rain continues on radar at this hour, moving into
mainly western Rio Arriba County. This area of precipitation is on
the edge of the very moist plume moving up around the mid/upper-
level high currently centered over west Texas. Much of this
moisture has its origins in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm
Priscilla, currently spinning and weakening just west of the Baja
spur.
Overall, not really a lot of change in the short-term forecast
thinking. Signal for heavy rain today is focused on the area near
the Four Corners, where near climo max precipitable water values
of 1.1-1.2 inches will be present within the aforementioned moist
plume, along with increasing lift over time, as the synoptic-scale
trough aloft over the Pacific Northwest continues to move inland.
Have issued a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for the Four Corners
zone (Northwest Plateau, including Farmington) from 18Z today
through 00Z Sun. Still some degree of uncertainty, with CAMs
generally putting the greatest QPF just north of the border in
Colorado, along the western slopes of the San Juan Mountains, but
it`s a little too close for comfort, especially considering NBM
5.0 75th percentile values QMD QPF of 1.5-2.2 inches through 00Z
Sun in the northern half of that zone. There is likely to be a
gradient in precip amounts across this zone from northwest to
southeast. Otherwise, further south and east, scattered more
garden-variety thunderstorms are likely to develop elsewhere
across the northwestern third where the sun can break through and
generate some surface-based instability. Influence of the upper
high should keep areas east of the central mountains dry today.
Overnight, scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms
continue over northwestern NM, fueled by the continued moisture
surge and approaching upper-level trough. In fact, into Saturday,
a 90-knot jet max at H25 moves into the Four Corners. This will
probably be the most impactful day, on a CWA-wide basis, of this
first moisture burst. The Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
presses further eastward into New Mexico, toward the Continental
Divide and the Chuska Mountains, with the Marginal Category
extending to the Central Mountain Chain. Moreover, SPC has
introduced a Marginal Risk for severe storms into extreme western
San Juan County for Saturday, with the main threats of hail and
damaging wind. Although instability will be limited, with most
guidance indicating ~500 J/kg of CAPE, deep-layer shear of 35-50
knots should be enough to overcome this in an environment of
large-scale lift. Meanwhile, lee-side troughing brings breezy to
gusty conditions to northeastern NM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 108 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Rain, moderate to potentially heavy at times, is progged to
continue well into Saturday evening along and west of the central
mountain chain, before some subtle changes move in for Sunday. As
the trough over the northwestern CONUS moves inland to the
northern Rockies, some drier air aloft moves in over the northern
half of NM on more WSW flow. Meanwhile, remnant moisture and even
some sheared out remnants of Tropical Storm Raymond move across
southern NM, where the highest precip chances and QPF will focus.
Unfortunately, this does bring 60-70% PoPs back to the Ruidoso
area burn scars on Sunday, with the higher QPF amounts
uncomfortably close to the south. Lee surface troughing again
brings some breezy conditions to eastern NM.
Into Sunday night, the aforementioned trough moving into the
northern Rockies sends a fairly strong back-door cold front into
NM from the northeast, which looks to eventually press all the way
to the Continental Divide. Forecast high temps for Monday are
8-12F below normal for areas behind the front. This front also
meets some renewed tropical moisture, seemingly associated with
the remnants of Raymond, leading to scattered to numerous showers
and storms focused over central NM from Monday into at least the
first part of Tuesday. WPC already has this area in a Slight Risk
in the ERO for Monday, with the Ruidoso burn scars perhaps again
under the gun. The post-frontal airmass will be cooler and more
stable however, which should help to mitigate rainfall rates.
Heading into the middle and later part of next week, southwest
flow aloft is maintained, as the general pattern of West Coast
troughing and a high aloft near the Texas Gulf coast continues.
However, at this time, it appears the moist plume becomes more
diffuse, with more isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Main aviation impacts will be at KFMN and KGUP over the next 24
hours. Current radar composite indicates a large precipitation
shield over northeastern AZ, with embedded moderate showers. This
precip will gradually work its way into the vicinity of KFMN, and,
to a lesser extent, KGUP. MVFR ceilings and gusty winds are
likely to accompany the more moderate showers and, by this
afternoon, embedded thunderstorms. More widespread MVFR ceilings
and visibilities, along with more rain, move in to those two terminals
between 03-09Z Saturday. At the other terminals, VFR prevails,
with some southerly afternoon breezes east of the central mountain
chain.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next
seven days. Widespread wetting rains, favoring areas along and
west of the central mountain chain, will occur in several rounds
through early next week. Breezy to gusty conditions develop over
northeastern NM on Saturday afternoon, with RH`s falling to 20-30%
over Union County on Sunday, both due to lee-side troughing.
However, fuels states remain unreceptive, per latest ERC`s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  71  57  70  53 /  70  80  80  70
Dulce...........................  68  47  64  44 /  60  80  80  80
Cuba............................  71  50  66  48 /  40  50  80  60
Gallup..........................  73  52  67  49 /  50  70  70  60
El Morro........................  70  52  65  49 /  50  50  70  60
Grants..........................  72  52  69  49 /  40  50  70  50
Quemado.........................  73  52  70  49 /  20  40  70  60
Magdalena.......................  72  56  72  54 /  10  10  70  40
Datil...........................  69  51  70  50 /  20  30  80  50
Reserve.........................  78  52  75  51 /  20  30  70  70
Glenwood........................  83  57  79  54 /  10  40  70  70
Chama...........................  65  45  59  42 /  60  70  80  80
Los Alamos......................  70  54  64  52 /  20  20  70  60
Pecos...........................  70  50  66  49 /  10  20  50  60
Cerro/Questa....................  71  49  64  49 /  20  20  50  40
Red River.......................  63  42  56  41 /  20  20  60  40
Angel Fire......................  67  36  63  39 /  20  20  50  40
Taos............................  73  49  67  48 /  20  20  50  40
Mora............................  70  45  66  46 /  20  20  40  40
Espanola........................  78  55  71  52 /  20  20  60  50
Santa Fe........................  72  54  67  52 /  20  20  60  60
Santa Fe Airport................  74  53  70  51 /  20  10  60  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  76  62  74  58 /  10  10  60  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  78  60  76  56 /  10  10  60  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  59  78  56 /  10  10  60  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  78  60  75  56 /  10  10  60  50
Belen...........................  80  57  78  55 /  10  10  50  50
Bernalillo......................  80  60  76  55 /  10  10  60  50
Bosque Farms....................  80  57  77  53 /  10  10  60  50
Corrales........................  80  60  76  56 /  10  10  60  50
Los Lunas.......................  80  59  77  55 /  10  10  60  50
Placitas........................  75  58  72  54 /  10  10  60  50
Rio Rancho......................  79  60  75  56 /  10  10  60  50
Socorro.........................  81  61  80  57 /  10  10  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  70  54  69  51 /  10  20  60  60
Tijeras.........................  72  55  70  52 /  10  20  60  60
Edgewood........................  73  50  71  49 /  10  20  50  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  75  49  73  48 /  10  10  50  50
Clines Corners..................  70  50  69  50 /   5  10  30  50
Mountainair.....................  72  52  72  51 /  10  10  40  50
Gran Quivira....................  73  52  73  51 /   5  10  20  50
Carrizozo.......................  75  57  77  57 /   5   5  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  68  51  71  54 /  10  10  20  50
Capulin.........................  72  50  71  50 /   5   5  10  10
Raton...........................  75  49  74  48 /   5   5  10  10
Springer........................  77  52  76  50 /   5   5  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  70  50  68  51 /  10  10  20  30
Clayton.........................  79  57  79  59 /   5   5   5   5
Roy.............................  74  54  74  54 /   5   5   5  10
Conchas.........................  80  57  81  59 /   5   5   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  76  55  77  56 /   5   5  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  80  57  82  59 /   5   5   5  10
Clovis..........................  82  57  82  60 /   5   5   5  10
Portales........................  83  58  83  62 /   5   5   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  79  57  80  59 /   5   5   5  20
Roswell.........................  82  59  84  62 /   5   5   5  20
Picacho.........................  77  54  81  58 /   5   5  10  30
Elk.............................  75  51  77  56 /   5   5  10  30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Saturday afternoon for
NMZ201.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...53-Schroeder

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion