Angoon, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

478
FXAK67 PAJK 280608
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1008 PM AKDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.UPDATE... for the 06z TAFs.
Mainly VFR conditions overnight continuing only a few locations
with ceiling of 1500 to 3000 feet. Scattered shower activity but
not lowering visibilities for flight conditions. Showers off shore
may have stronger convection with it, and looks like the most
favorable spot to catch this could be near the NE gulf coast.
Sunday should continue to show similar conditions with VFR flight
conditions.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 412 pm AKDT Sat 27 Sept...
.SHORT TERM...Showers continue across the central and
northern panhandle this evening following a wave rotating around
an upper level low located over the central to western Gulf. This
upper level trough is stacked over a surface gale force low in the
western Gulf at this time, which will move eastward and approach
the panhandle late tonight. Until then, moderate to heavy showers
will begin to diminish across the panhandle this evening, before
another trough rotates around the low just ahead of an approaching
front, allowing for another round of showers tonight across the
panhandle.
The front is expected to impact the coastline by the early
morning, with the highest chances for rainfall remaining along the
outer coast Sunday as the low itself lingers offshore. Chances
for rain will exist across more inland areas tomorrow, but as the
low begins to move to the southeast into Monday, chances will
begin to decrease for the northern panhandle and increase across
the southern panhandle. The southern panhandle tonight into Sunday
will see lower chances for precipitation, as well as some
potential for some clearing in the skies Sunday morning into
midday for areas further from the outer coastline. Overall
rainfall totals for this front will be highest for the outer
coastline from Baranof Island northward late tonight into
tomorrow, before impacting the southern coastline into tomorrow
night. Rainfall totals will be between 0.30 and 0.70 inches every
12 hours along the outer coastline tonight through tomorrow night.
Areas more inland will see 0.10 to 0.30 inches tonight following
some moderate to heavy showers, while becoming much lighter
tomorrow as the front passes and stays more along the coast.
Some chances for thunderstorms will exist late tonight between
Cape Edgecumbe and Icy Cape, with chances of moving a bit more
into the panhandle near Mount Fairweather and Cross Sound. Overall
this will only last for a few hours between around 06Z and 12Z as
the trough moves through and CAPE values look to be promising for
some convective activity in the showers moving through. This will
then diminish by around 12Z as the front approaches the
coastline.
Winds will begin to increase into tonight along the outer coast
as this gale force low approaches, and will mainly bring increases
to the E-W inner channels as the pressure gradient tightens as
the low moves towards the coastline. The winds are not expected to
impact inland areas, with most remaining under 15 kts. The main
exception to this is Skagway, which in the next few hours will
continue to see 20 to 25 kt winds due to the tightened N-S
pressure gradient, before diminishing into tonight.
.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...
Key Messages:
- Lingering rain and wind decrease through Monday
- Skies clear out Tuesday into Wednesday
- Next system moves in from the northwest Thursday
Details: The gale force low impacting the panhandle Sunday will
gradually weaken Monday as it becomes vertically stacked and
starts to move south. Rain will continue through Monday, with the
outer coast seeing moderate rates and weakening as it moves
towards the interior. Only about an inch is expected for coastal
communities with this lingering system, while the interior
panhandle will see less than half an inch in most places, and
Skagway and Haines looking to avoid most of it. Cloudy skies will
stick around through Monday and will start to move out as the
system dips south of the panhandle overnight. By Tuesday morning,
skies will be clearing from the northwest to the southeast as high
pressure develops over interior Alaska and the Yukon Territory
and builds a ridge over the panhandle. The system will linger for
a bit longer in the southern panhandle as southeasterly flow
continues potential for showers to develop Tuesday. By Wednesday,
precipitation and cloud cover will have largely moved out of the
panhandle allowing for partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions to
prevail. Clouds begin to move back in proceeding another system
jumping into the northern gulf overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
An area of deep upper level shortwave troughing helps to steer a
disorganized low into the northern outer coast through Thursday,
bringing light rain amounts back into the panhandle Thursday
afternoon. There is still decent spread on the exact timing of
this next system which will impact total accumulations, though it
is currently looking to only bring around an inch or less to a
majority of the panhandle. Precipitation looks to continue through
the longer term, though there may be a few short breaks between
systems.
Winds are expected to diminish as the low moves away from the
panhandle Monday, with the strongest winds lingering along the
outer coast, coming out of Cross Sound, and flowing into Clarence
Strait. As the low dives south, the southeasterly flow will direct
fresh to strong breezes further up Clarence all the way through
Frederick Sound. As ridging develops Tuesday, outflow winds will
turn offshore and weaken for a majority of the inner channels. A
tightening N/S pressure gradient north of the panhandle begins to
tighten with this ridging, increasing outflow winds down Lynn
Canal into Wednesday. Southerly flow associated with the system
moving in Thursday will turn flow back onshore. Highs will be in
the 50s Monday, increasing slightly through the week. The southern
panhandle will most likely breach the 60s with extra heating from
the sun. Lows will be in the 40s, with select areas of the
panhandle dipping into the high 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...The northern inner channels are still seeing some
gusty surface winds (gusts to 40 mph at Skagway and sustained
winds of 20 to 25 kt in Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage).
Otherwise most areas are seeing less then 20 kts of wind. Aloft
winds have diminished, however there is still some low level speed
shear expected later tonight in some areas (mainly along the
outer coast) with around 25 kt of wind around 2000 ft agl that
develops later this evening and lasts through the rest of tonight.
Only a few reports of turbulence have been received through the
day today. Winds in the north should diminish tonight as winds
along the outer coast increase due to the next front coming in
from the west. This front looks to stall along the outer coast
tonight into tomorrow so most of the winds and wind effects will
be mainly for the outer coast.
Vis and ceilings today are primarily VFR to MVFR with the lower
conditions around heavier showers mainly. Brief break in the
showers expected this evening with improvements to VFR before the
outer coast sees precip possibly returning with MVFR conditions as
a front stalls along the outer coast. Areas farther inland are
expected to remain VFR with more offshore flow into tonight. There
is also some thunderstorm possibility (20% chance) for the outer
coast tonight as the front initially moves closer from Sitka to
Yakutat.
&&
.MARINE...
Inner Channels: North-South pressure gradient continues to stay
tightened this evening, bringing southerly strong breezes (15 to
25 kt) up along Lynn Canal due to the slight ridging over the
northern panhandle and low to the north. Winds will diminish in
the N-S channels in the northern panhandle into tonight as the
gale force low approaches. The low moving closer to the panhandle
will result in a stronger East-West pressure gradient into
tonight, and along with the front moving through will bring fresh
to strong easterly breezes to Cross Sound, Icy Strait, Stephens
Passage, Frederick Sound, and Sumner Strait. Increased winds will
continue south all the way down to Clarence Strait, with fresh to
strong southeasterly breezes along Chatham Strait and Clarence as
the front moves through. Winds will diminish across the inner
channels into tomorrow night, as the low weakens and begins to
move southeastward into Monday.
Outside Waters: The low approaching the coast tonight will shift
the winds in the Gulf from south / southwest to southeasterly. The
associated gale force front will push along the coast, bringing
near gales to gales (28 to 35 kt) just offshore late tonight
through tomorrow. The strongest winds will be between Cape Spencer
and Cape Fairweather as well as between Icy Cape and Cape
Suckling with winds around 35 kt tomorrow morning. Winds will
diminish across the Gulf by tomorrow night to between a moderate
to fresh breeze as the low begins to move to the southeast. Seas
will increase to between 13 and 16 ft tonight as the low moves in,
with the highest seas along the outer coastline, diminishing to 7
to 10 ft by tomorrow night. E swell of 7 to 10 ft moving into the
eastern Gulf late tonight into tomorrow, with a dominant wave
period of 10 to 12 seconds expected.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-663-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-033-053-641>643-651-652-661-
     662.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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