Apple Valley Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

942
FXUS63 KMPX 141919
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
219 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Area-wide showers this afternoon through tonight.
- Drying out on Wednesday. Lingering showers possible along
  I-90. Additional showers likely Wednesday night into Thursday.
- Well above normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday.
- A cooler, drier air mass settles in for the weekend into early
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Light rain has spread across the entire forecast area over the last
several hours. The low level easterly flow will actively dry the low
levels and has limited rain so far this morning. It`s effectively
lost it`s fight against the rain at this point, but we can observe
it`s impact given the 8-10kft ceiling heights. Impressive
nonetheless! Light rain is expected to continue through the evening
hours before it tapers off early Wednesday morning. Latest radar
imagery shows a broad shield of showers across the southern half of
Minnesota & western Wisconsin. I have nudged PoPs higher, into the
80-100 range, to better highlight the broad area of light, steady
rainfall. Latest guidance suggests most locations end up between
0.25 to 0.50" by Wednesday morning.  Temperatures have warmed slowly
given the cloud cover & active evaporative cooling. Highs will top
out in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Tonight`s low temperatures won`t
change much for the same exact reasoning previously mentioned low
temperatures ran from the lower 40s to the upper 40s.
On Wednesday, we`ll see much of the area dry out in between systems.
High temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 50s with mostly
cloudy skies. Rain chances return Wednesday night into Thursday as a
thermal ridge builds into the region. There will be enough forcing
tied to the low to mid level warm front to support scattered
showers development. Thursday & Friday will see temperature warm
well above normal with high temperatures into the mid 60s to mid
70s. Most locations should remain dry through Friday afternoon as a
surface low pivots over the Dakotas. Aloft, the upper level trough
over the western US will cross the Rockies and into the Plains
Wednesday. A surface low will form lee of the Rockies and intensify
as it lifts northward into the Dakotas on Thursday. This low track
into Canada and drag a decaying surface boundary through the Upper
Midwest on Friday. Friday`s rain chances are tied to the frontal
passage. The forcing will be limited, but there should be enough to
squeeze out scatted showers along the boundary. Amounts will not be
too impressive or "just enough to keep the dust down."
Temperatures cool down behind the frontal passage as we head into
the weekend. There are a few slight chance PoPs both days, primarily
over W WI, given some lingering forcing aloft. Highs will be mid 50s
to low 60s with lows in the 40s. Another thermal ridge will build in
for early next week ahead of another wave off to our northwest.
There is some disagreement within models so I`ve opted to keep NBM
PoPs as is. However, guidance hints at another amplified trough
ejecting out of the Rockies mid-next week time frame. Model spread
is rather significant given it`s a week out so it`s just something
to keep an eye on for now. Our active, amplified pattern should
support another organized system somewhere in the north central
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Radar depicts a more expansive shield of rain moving over
western Minnesota early this afternoon. Much of the rainfall
thus far has been associated with VFR cloud bases between 8-10k
feet. This trend should continue in the near term. Ceilings are
forecast to lower to MVFR across western Minnesota later this
afternoon and will continue eastward into this evening. Otherwise,
VFR with persistent -RA likely late afternoon into this evening,
where the heaviest rainfall rates may result in visibility reductions
to around 4SM. Latest hi-res guidance is a little faster with the
end time of rainfall at several terminals, though the potential
exists for an IFR stratus/-DZ scenario to linger through
daybreak (particularly at RWF/MKT). Not too optimistic about
notable ceiling improvements through the end of the 18z TAF
period.
KMSP...VFR showers continue this afternoon. Moderate rainfall
rates will arrive later this afternoon into early evening, which
may result in visibility dropping to ~5SM for a period. Have
bumped up the end time of precipitation based on latest hi-res
trends. Easterly winds may gust between 15-20kts later today.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that it will be 21z at the
earliest (Wednesday) before ceilings improve to VFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Chc-RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind W 10-15G20kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Strus

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion