Apple Valley, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

744
FXUS63 KBIS 071358
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
858 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend to start the week.
- Precipitation chance return mid to late week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
The Frost Advisory has been allowed to expire. What remaining
patchy fog looks to be burning of as well. Sunny skies expected
today with only some slowly increasing mid and high level clouds
from southwest to northeast.
UPDATE
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A chilly morning continues over the area, thus will leave the
frost advisory in place. Only change for morning update was to
add patchy fog over the James River Valley as visibility has
dipped down to 3/4 mile at times in Jamestown, though this has
bounced around quite a bit over the past couple hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Current surface analysis places trough to the lee of the Rockies
with broad high stretching from Manitoba through the eastern
Dakotas/Minnesota southward into the Ozarks. Upper level
analysis places ridge stretching from the Great Basin into the
Northern Rockies, with trough from James Bay into the central
Great Lakes region. Over our area, cold temperatures continue
under and just to the back side of the high, with many locations
dipping into the lower to mid 30s. Therefore, Frost Advisory for
most of our area except the far western tier of counties
remains in effect.
For today, surface high pushes east as upper ridge broadens out,
resulting in warmer air pushing into the area. Quiet conditions
continue.  Warming trend continues into Monday with many
western locations pushing into the 80s, which will continue into
Tuesday as ridge continues to build in.
For the middle into the end of the week, an upper low over the
western CONUS will eject multiple impulses up along the backside
of the ridge. Some question remains on how far east the ridge
will push, thus the impact these impulses will have on our
weather. With that all said, this will bring chances for
precipitation to our area along with occasional thunderstorm
chances.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Localized fog over the James River Valley affecting the KJMS
terminal may lead to brief periods of IFR visibility early this
morning. This should dissipate by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion